HWBK
Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) closed at $39.14 as of 2026-06-19, trading 61.2% above its 200-week moving average of $24.27. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 55.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, HWBK is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1356 weeks of data, HWBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HWBK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.6%.
With a market cap of $270 million, HWBK is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.7%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 26.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HWBK would have grown to $609, compared to $818 for the S&P 500. HWBK has returned 7.2% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HWBK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HWBK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying HWBK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.1% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.3% vs +21.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HWBK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HWBK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HWBK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $32.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $34.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $35.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $37.42 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HWBK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HWBK has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +25.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2001 | 57 | 17.8% | -14.4% | +509.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 1.3% | +29.7% | +548.1% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 2 | 0.4% | +17.5% | +223.0% |
| Oct 2007 | May 2012 | 239 | 61.4% | -29.0% | +216.9% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 9 | 7.7% | +82.5% | +727.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 21.9% | +21.4% | +172.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 6 | 10.6% | +30.5% | +144.8% |
| May 2023 | Nov 2023 | 27 | 20.3% | +13.2% | +142.8% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | +52.1% | +117.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Jun 2024 | 9 | 4.4% | +52.4% | +110.8% |
| Average | 39 | — | +25.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HWBK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) is currently 61.2% above its 200-week moving average of $24.27. It would need to fall to $24.27 to cross below the line.
What is HWBK's 200-week moving average price?
Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.27 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HWBK drops below its 200-week moving average?
HWBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is HWBK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HWBK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.7%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HWBK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.1 years, $100 invested in HWBK would have grown to $609, compared to $818 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. HWBK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HWBK pay a dividend?
Yes. Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 227.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19