HUBS
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HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) closed at $232.58 as of 2026-02-02, trading 52.2% below its 200-week moving average of $486.27. This places HUBS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -42.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 15, HUBS is in oversold territory.
Over the past 543 weeks of data, HUBS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HUBS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +52.3%.
With a market cap of $12.3 billion, HUBS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.9%. Return on equity stands at -0.2%. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
Share count has increased 9.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 10.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HUBS would have grown to $501, compared to $430 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.6% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming HUBS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 38.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: HUBS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HUBS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying HUBS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +52.5% after 12 months (median +55.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +123.9% vs +40.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HUBS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HUBS has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +52.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 27.6% | +27.0% | +473.0% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 4.1% | +40.3% | +439.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 1.6% | +51.4% | +435.7% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.8% | +90.6% | +406.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 8 | 17.3% | +58.8% | -28.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 22 | 25.2% | +52.9% | -30.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 1 | 2.7% | +87.2% | -32.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 5 | 3.8% | +10.1% | -51.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.3% | N/A | -53.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Sep 2025 | 7 | 13.9% | N/A | -53.3% |
| Sep 2025 | Ongoing | 19+ | 52.2% | Ongoing | -48.5% |
| Average | 7 | — | +52.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02