HUBG
Hub Group, Inc. Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) closed at $44.35 as of 2026-06-19, trading 11.5% above its 200-week moving average of $39.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1531 weeks of data, HUBG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HUBG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.7%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, HUBG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 6.2%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HUBG would have grown to $1388, compared to $1565 for the S&P 500. HUBG has returned 9.4% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HUBG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HUBG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying HUBG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.1% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +16.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.7% vs +35.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HUBG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HUBG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HUBG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2025-09-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.79 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $49.19 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HUBG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HUBG has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +14.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1998 | Mar 1998 | 1 | 4.0% | -25.0% | +1349.5% |
| Apr 1998 | May 1999 | 53 | 48.6% | -5.5% | +1421.1% |
| Jun 1999 | Aug 2003 | 217 | 68.3% | -43.4% | +1622.4% |
| Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +164.6% | +3375.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2010 | 68 | 40.1% | +13.8% | +290.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 5.9% | +13.6% | +220.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.3% | +16.1% | +225.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 7.4% | +6.4% | +222.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.9% | +11.7% | +223.4% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 3.7% | +34.7% | +219.9% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 2 | 3.2% | +31.3% | +208.3% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 2 | 6.4% | +13.5% | +166.2% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 2 | 2.6% | +0.5% | +149.6% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 9.2% | -15.1% | +157.0% |
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2015 | 1 | 1.6% | +7.9% | +146.9% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.8% | +10.0% | +148.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.8% | +10.1% | +142.5% |
| Nov 2015 | Mar 2016 | 15 | 22.3% | +16.8% | +148.2% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 1.8% | +24.2% | +144.9% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | -6.0% | +140.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.0% | -2.9% | +138.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 9.3% | +1.8% | +134.0% |
| Apr 2017 | Sep 2017 | 23 | 15.5% | +7.1% | +134.9% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 2 | 2.1% | +9.9% | +132.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 3.3% | +9.5% | +132.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 16.3% | +24.4% | +127.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 5.4% | +9.1% | +118.1% |
| May 2019 | Aug 2019 | 15 | 7.3% | -5.4% | +120.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 7.2% | +66.5% | +123.6% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 11.6% | +54.7% | +115.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Dec 2025 | 39 | 19.2% | +0.5% | +15.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 | 13.6% | N/A | +14.3% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 6.1% | N/A | +19.1% |
| Average | 15 | — | +14.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUBG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) is currently 11.5% above its 200-week moving average of $39.76. It would need to fall to $39.76 to cross below the line.
What is HUBG's 200-week moving average price?
Hub Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $39.76 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HUBG drops below its 200-week moving average?
HUBG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HUBG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HUBG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 6.2%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HUBG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.4 years, $100 invested in HUBG would have grown to $1388, compared to $1565 for the S&P 500. That's 9.4% annualized vs 9.8% for the index. HUBG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HUBG pay a dividend?
Yes. Hub Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 111.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19