HUBG
Hub Group, Inc. Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) closed at $32.72 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.5% below its 200-week moving average of $40.16. This places HUBG in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -10.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, HUBG is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1544 weeks of data, HUBG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HUBG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.7%.
With a market cap of $2.0 billion, HUBG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 6.2%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HUBG would have grown to $1024, compared to $1601 for the S&P 500. HUBG has returned 8.2% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HUBG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HUBG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 33 historical episodes, buying HUBG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.1% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +16.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.7% vs +35.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HUBG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HUBG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HUBG has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +14.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1998 | Mar 1998 | 1 | 4.0% | -25.0% | +969.4% |
| Apr 1998 | May 1999 | 53 | 48.6% | -5.5% | +1022.2% |
| Jun 1999 | Aug 2003 | 217 | 68.3% | -43.4% | +1170.7% |
| Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +164.6% | +2464.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2010 | 68 | 40.1% | +13.8% | +188.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 5.9% | +13.6% | +136.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.3% | +16.1% | +139.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 7.4% | +6.4% | +137.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.9% | +11.7% | +138.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 3.7% | +34.7% | +136.0% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 2 | 3.2% | +31.3% | +127.4% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 2 | 6.4% | +13.5% | +96.4% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 2 | 2.6% | +0.5% | +84.1% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 9.2% | -15.1% | +89.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2015 | 1 | 1.6% | +7.9% | +82.2% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 2.8% | +10.0% | +83.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.8% | +10.1% | +78.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Mar 2016 | 15 | 22.3% | +16.8% | +83.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 1.8% | +24.2% | +80.6% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | -6.0% | +77.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.0% | -2.9% | +75.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 9.3% | +1.8% | +72.7% |
| Apr 2017 | Sep 2017 | 23 | 15.5% | +7.1% | +73.3% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 2 | 2.1% | +9.9% | +71.3% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 1 | 3.3% | +9.5% | +71.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 16.3% | +24.4% | +67.6% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 5.4% | +9.1% | +60.9% |
| May 2019 | Aug 2019 | 15 | 7.3% | -5.4% | +62.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 7.2% | +66.5% | +65.0% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 11.6% | +54.7% | +59.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Dec 2025 | 39 | 19.2% | +0.5% | -15.2% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 | 13.3% | N/A | -15.6% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 6.1% | N/A | -12.1% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 4+ | 18.5% | Ongoing | -17.4% |
| Average | 15 | — | +14.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUBG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) is trading 18.5% below its 200-week moving average of $40.16. The current price is $32.72.
What is HUBG's 200-week moving average price?
Hub Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $40.16 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HUBG drops below its 200-week moving average?
HUBG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HUBG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HUBG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Return on equity is 6.2%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HUBG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in HUBG would have grown to $1024, compared to $1601 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 9.8% for the index. HUBG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HUBG pay a dividend?
Yes. Hub Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 150.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18