HTLD
Heartland Express, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) closed at $14.44 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.8% above its 200-week moving average of $12.16. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, HTLD is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.68 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2019 weeks of data, HTLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.6%.
With a market cap of $1119 million, HTLD is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -5.6%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTLD would have grown to $726, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. HTLD has returned 6.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HTLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying HTLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.7% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +10.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.8% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. HTLD currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HTLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HTLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1988 | 28 | 44.2% | N/A | +4767.7% |
| Jun 1988 | Jul 1988 | 6 | 4.0% | +56.6% | +5023.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Oct 1988 | 9 | 10.1% | +80.0% | +5463.0% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +78.5% | +686.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 2000 | 119 | 35.8% | -12.2% | +386.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | +4.1% | +39.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 3.1% | +6.0% | +39.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.0% | +18.5% | +39.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.8% | -11.6% | +35.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2008 | 7 | 6.4% | -0.3% | +31.1% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 5.6% | +11.1% | +37.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 16.0% | +11.9% | +31.1% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 2.8% | +12.1% | +31.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 0.3% | -1.4% | +27.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Oct 2009 | 6 | 4.0% | +5.1% | +30.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 7.6% | +13.3% | +31.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 6.2% | +23.1% | +33.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.2% | +26.2% | +29.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.1% | +2.3% | +25.2% |
| Sep 2010 | Sep 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | -1.7% | +26.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 11.0% | -4.1% | +22.3% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 0.8% | +2.7% | +20.1% |
| Mar 2012 | Jan 2013 | 42 | 10.9% | +0.1% | +19.0% |
| Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 5 | 2.4% | +63.2% | +18.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | 11.1% | +22.3% | -12.0% |
| Apr 2016 | Aug 2016 | 17 | 8.3% | +14.3% | -9.2% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 5.7% | +21.2% | -17.4% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 5.0% | -5.5% | -21.6% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 5 | 5.3% | -9.5% | -20.8% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.5% | -2.4% | -24.3% |
| Feb 2018 | Sep 2018 | 30 | 14.7% | -1.8% | -24.5% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 17 | 13.1% | +7.9% | -22.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 3.7% | -11.6% | -18.4% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 10 | 10.3% | +3.1% | -20.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.9% | +8.1% | -20.2% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 17 | 16.0% | +0.2% | -21.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | -10.1% | -22.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Apr 2026 | 293 | 43.4% | -16.4% | -23.4% |
| Average | 18 | — | +10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) is currently 18.8% above its 200-week moving average of $12.16. It would need to fall to $12.16 to cross below the line.
What is HTLD's 200-week moving average price?
Heartland Express, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.16 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HTLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
HTLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is HTLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HTLD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -5.6%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HTLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in HTLD would have grown to $726, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HTLD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HTLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Heartland Express, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 52.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19