HTLD
Heartland Express, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) closed at $12.23 as of 2026-07-31, trading 0.6% above its 200-week moving average of $12.15. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 17.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2025 weeks of data, HTLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.9%.
With a market cap of $948 million, HTLD is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -2.8%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTLD would have grown to $616, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. HTLD has returned 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HTLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying HTLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.1% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.4% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. HTLD currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HTLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HTLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +10.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Apr 1988 | 28 | 44.2% | N/A | +4028.3% |
| Jun 1988 | Jul 1988 | 6 | 4.0% | +56.6% | +4245.6% |
| Aug 1988 | Oct 1988 | 9 | 10.1% | +80.0% | +4618.1% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +78.5% | +567.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 2000 | 119 | 35.8% | -12.2% | +312.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | +4.1% | +18.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 3.2% | +6.0% | +18.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 2.1% | +18.5% | +18.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.8% | -11.6% | +15.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2008 | 7 | 6.4% | -0.3% | +11.1% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 5.6% | +11.1% | +16.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 16.1% | +11.9% | +11.2% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 2.9% | +12.1% | +11.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 0.4% | -1.4% | +8.4% |
| Aug 2009 | Oct 2009 | 6 | 4.1% | +5.1% | +10.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 6 | 7.7% | +13.3% | +11.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 6.2% | +23.1% | +13.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.3% | +26.2% | +10.0% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.1% | +2.3% | +6.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 11.0% | -4.1% | +3.7% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 0.9% | +2.7% | +1.9% |
| Mar 2012 | Jan 2013 | 42 | 9.4% | +0.1% | +0.9% |
| Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 5 | 2.4% | +63.2% | +0.8% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | 11.1% | +22.3% | -25.5% |
| Apr 2016 | Aug 2016 | 17 | 8.3% | +14.3% | -23.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 5.7% | +21.2% | -29.9% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 5.0% | -5.5% | -33.6% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 5 | 5.3% | -9.5% | -32.8% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.5% | -2.4% | -35.8% |
| Feb 2018 | Sep 2018 | 30 | 14.7% | -1.8% | -36.0% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 17 | 13.1% | +7.9% | -34.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 3.6% | -11.6% | -30.9% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 10 | 10.2% | +3.1% | -32.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.9% | +8.1% | -32.3% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 17 | 15.9% | +0.2% | -33.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | -10.1% | -34.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Apr 2026 | 293 | 43.4% | -16.4% | -35.0% |
| Average | 19 | — | +10.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) is currently 0.6% above its 200-week moving average of $12.15. It would need to fall to $12.15 to cross below the line.
What is HTLD's 200-week moving average price?
Heartland Express, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.15 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HTLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
HTLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is HTLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HTLD as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is -2.8%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HTLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in HTLD would have grown to $616, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HTLD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HTLD pay a dividend?
Yes. Heartland Express, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 65.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31