HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Financial Conglomerates Investor Relations →
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) closed at $37.86 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.7% above its 200-week moving average of $30.37. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1117 weeks of data, HTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.9%.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion, HTH is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 7.6%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTH would have grown to $358, compared to $937 for the S&P 500. HTH has returned 6.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $3,359,700. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HTH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying HTH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.9% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +12.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.7% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. HTH currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HTH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HTH has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +8.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2007 | 111 | 35.1% | -21.4% | +268.1% |
| Apr 2007 | Jul 2007 | 11 | 4.7% | -9.0% | +285.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2007 | 11 | 8.1% | -15.3% | +283.8% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2009 | 71 | 24.7% | -25.0% | +277.0% |
| May 2010 | May 2012 | 105 | 31.2% | -10.9% | +304.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 15.9% | +71.1% | +159.5% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 0.4% | -4.2% | +101.3% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | -3.2% | +99.2% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2019 | 56 | 24.7% | -2.2% | +99.3% |
| Jan 2020 | Oct 2020 | 39 | 41.1% | +35.2% | +90.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 1.7% | +13.8% | +63.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.4% | +20.7% | +48.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 1.2% | +3.6% | +35.4% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 0.0% | +14.7% | +30.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 9.8% | +23.6% | +36.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.1% | +28.5% | +36.2% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | +31.5% | +31.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +8.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) is currently 24.7% above its 200-week moving average of $30.37. It would need to fall to $30.37 to cross below the line.
What is HTH's 200-week moving average price?
Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $30.37 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HTH drops below its 200-week moving average?
HTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is HTH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HTH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Return on equity is 7.6%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HTH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.5 years, $100 invested in HTH would have grown to $358, compared to $937 for the S&P 500. That's 6.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. HTH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HTH pay a dividend?
Yes. Hilltop Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 200.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19