HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Financial Conglomerates Investor Relations →
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) closed at $39.83 as of 2026-02-02, trading 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $29.61. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 26.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 89, HTH is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1098 weeks of data, HTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.1%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, HTH is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 7.8%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTH would have grown to $373, compared to $862 for the S&P 500. HTH has returned 6.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $3,359,700. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -28.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: HTH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying HTH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.4% vs +19.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HTH has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +6.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2007 | 111 | 35.1% | -21.4% | +283.2% |
| Apr 2007 | Jul 2007 | 11 | 4.7% | -9.0% | +301.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2007 | 11 | 8.1% | -15.3% | +299.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2009 | 71 | 24.7% | -25.0% | +292.5% |
| May 2010 | May 2012 | 105 | 31.2% | -10.9% | +321.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 15.9% | +71.1% | +170.1% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 0.4% | -4.2% | +109.6% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | -3.2% | +107.4% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2019 | 56 | 24.7% | -2.2% | +107.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Oct 2020 | 39 | 41.1% | +35.2% | +97.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 1.7% | +13.8% | +70.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.4% | +20.7% | +54.1% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 1.2% | +3.6% | +41.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 0.0% | +14.7% | +35.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 9.8% | +23.6% | +41.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.1% | N/A | +41.8% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +36.9% |
| Average | 25 | — | +6.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02