HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) closed at $17.33 as of 2026-09-18, trading 22.5% above its 200-week moving average of $14.14. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, HTGC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1062 weeks of data, HTGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTGC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.2%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, HTGC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 37.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 20.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTGC would have grown to $1184, compared to $869 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.9% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming HTGC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HTGC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTGC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HTGC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.8% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.3% vs +23.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTGC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HTGC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HTGC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.23 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $3.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.34 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $17.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.48 | $0.50 | +3.3% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.47 | $0.48 | +1.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.49 | $0.48 | -2.5% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.48 | $0.49 | +1.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HTGC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HTGC has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +28.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 0.0% | +27.9% | +1139.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 1.7% | -24.6% | +1019.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 9.2% | -15.4% | +1026.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Aug 2008 | 19 | 20.4% | -40.6% | +1053.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2009 | 43 | 58.3% | +16.1% | +1040.2% |
| Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 2 | 5.5% | +36.0% | +425.6% |
| Sep 2015 | Nov 2015 | 10 | 9.9% | +36.9% | +413.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 3.3% | +38.9% | +394.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 9.0% | +43.8% | +392.7% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 39.2% | +70.9% | +235.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 5.2% | +87.6% | +238.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +61.5% | +134.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | +32.2% |
| Average | 8 | — | +28.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTGC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is currently 22.5% above its 200-week moving average of $14.14. It would need to fall to $14.14 to cross below the line.
What is HTGC's 200-week moving average price?
Hercules Capital, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.14 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HTGC drops below its 200-week moving average?
HTGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is HTGC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HTGC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 79 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 8.0%. Return on equity is 17.3%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HTGC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.4 years, $100 invested in HTGC would have grown to $1184, compared to $869 for the S&P 500. That's 12.9% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. HTGC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HTGC pay a dividend?
Yes. Hercules Capital, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1085.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18