HTGC

Hercules Capital, Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →

NO
14.6% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 29.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $14.36
14-Week RSI 42

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) closed at $16.45 as of 2026-02-02, trading 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $14.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 1030 weeks of data, HTGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTGC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.3%.

With a market cap of $3.0 billion, HTGC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.

Share count has increased 46.3% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 19.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTGC would have grown to $1028, compared to $782 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming HTGC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: HTGC vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After HTGC Crosses Below the Line?

Across 11 historical episodes, buying HTGC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.4% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.8% vs +25.3% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTGC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

HTGC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +28.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 2007Dec 200711.6%-24.6%+871.9%
Jan 2008Jan 200839.1%-15.4%+878.1%
Mar 2008Aug 20082120.2%-40.6%+900.8%
Sep 2008Jun 20094358.2%+16.1%+889.6%
Jul 2015Aug 201525.4%+36.0%+356.2%
Sep 2015Nov 2015109.7%+36.9%+345.3%
Dec 2015Dec 201513.1%+38.9%+328.8%
Jan 2016Mar 201688.8%+43.8%+327.6%
Mar 2020May 20201039.1%+70.9%+190.8%
Jun 2020Jul 202035.0%+87.6%+193.5%
Sep 2022Oct 202211.4%+61.5%+103.1%
Average9+28.3%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02