HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) closed at $16.45 as of 2026-02-02, trading 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $14.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1030 weeks of data, HTGC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HTGC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.3%.
With a market cap of $3.0 billion, HTGC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 46.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 19.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HTGC would have grown to $1028, compared to $782 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming HTGC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: HTGC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HTGC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying HTGC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.4% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.8% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HTGC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HTGC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +28.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | -24.6% | +871.9% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 9.1% | -15.4% | +878.1% |
| Mar 2008 | Aug 2008 | 21 | 20.2% | -40.6% | +900.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2009 | 43 | 58.2% | +16.1% | +889.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 2 | 5.4% | +36.0% | +356.2% |
| Sep 2015 | Nov 2015 | 10 | 9.7% | +36.9% | +345.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 3.1% | +38.9% | +328.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 8 | 8.8% | +43.8% | +327.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 39.1% | +70.9% | +190.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 5.0% | +87.6% | +193.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.4% | +61.5% | +103.1% |
| Average | 9 | — | +28.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02