HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) closed at $23.27 as of 2026-06-19, trading 85.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 80.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 582 weeks of data, HRTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $704 million, HRTG is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 22.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 47.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 20.7% over three years, indicating dilution. HRTG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 11.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HRTG would have grown to $131, compared to $432 for the S&P 500. HRTG has returned 2.4% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HRTG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HRTG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HRTG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.0% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 8% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.7% vs +40.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HRTG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HRTG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HRTG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $21.65 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $23.20 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.98 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $27.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HRTG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HRTG has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 4 | 6.0% | -29.4% | +46.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 1.3% | -16.0% | +43.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Oct 2017 | 86 | 41.8% | -5.7% | +64.4% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 7 | 5.6% | -6.3% | +65.1% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | -2.4% | +60.7% |
| Jul 2018 | Oct 2018 | 13 | 17.6% | -5.8% | +72.1% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | -10.2% | +62.4% |
| Dec 2018 | May 2019 | 23 | 13.0% | -10.8% | +70.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.8% | -12.7% | +74.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 11.1% | -9.8% | +80.6% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 5.5% | -27.2% | +76.6% |
| Nov 2019 | Oct 2023 | 207 | 84.9% | -25.2% | +80.8% |
| Dec 2023 | Feb 2024 | 10 | 9.4% | +93.2% | +257.5% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-5.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRTG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) is currently 85.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.56. It would need to fall to $12.56 to cross below the line.
What is HRTG's 200-week moving average price?
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HRTG drops below its 200-week moving average?
HRTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is HRTG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HRTG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 22.7%. Return on equity is 47.5%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HRTG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.2 years, $100 invested in HRTG would have grown to $131, compared to $432 for the S&P 500. That's 2.4% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. HRTG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19