HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation Consumer Staples - Food Investor Relations →
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) closed at $24.16 as of 2026-06-19, trading 20.2% below its 200-week moving average of $30.28. This places HRL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.28 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, HRL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HRL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.1%.
With a market cap of $13.3 billion, HRL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 5.8%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
HRL is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 475.00%.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HRL would have grown to $1635, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. HRL has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HRL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HRL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying HRL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.5% after 12 months (median +39.0%), compared to +8.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.1% vs +20.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HRL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HRL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HRL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.34 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $19.40 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $20.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $21.93 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.46 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HRL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HRL has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +34.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.7% | +19.5% | +21636.6% |
| Apr 1981 | May 1981 | 3 | 1.7% | +40.0% | +21302.2% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 13 | 11.1% | +10.7% | +21138.9% |
| Mar 1994 | May 1994 | 7 | 2.2% | +44.2% | +1885.7% |
| Jul 1996 | Sep 1996 | 9 | 5.7% | +32.7% | +1540.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 5.3% | +43.9% | +1007.3% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | 1.5% | +37.1% | +996.9% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 4 | 4.2% | +67.7% | +991.0% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 1 | 2.2% | +46.0% | +691.7% |
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 32 | 22.1% | +11.7% | +350.5% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | +38.3% | +0.6% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 3 | 2.4% | +17.4% | -30.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Ongoing | 173+ | 37.4% | Ongoing | -32.6% |
| Average | 20 | — | +34.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is trading 20.2% below its 200-week moving average of $30.28. The current price is $24.16.
What is HRL's 200-week moving average price?
Hormel Foods Corporation's 200-week moving average is $30.28 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HRL drops below its 200-week moving average?
HRL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is HRL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HRL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 5.8%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HRL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in HRL would have grown to $1635, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HRL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HRL pay a dividend?
Yes. Hormel Foods Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 475.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19