HRI
Herc Holdings Inc. Industrials - Rental & Leasing Services Investor Relations →
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) closed at $135.26 as of 2026-09-18, trading 0.9% below its 200-week moving average of $136.55. This places HRI in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 4.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 987 weeks of data, HRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HRI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.3%.
With a market cap of $4.5 billion, HRI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 2.6%. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Share count has increased 15.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 19 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HRI would have grown to $236, compared to $697 for the S&P 500. HRI has returned 4.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $930,265. Notably, these purchases occurred while HRI is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.9% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +116.1% vs +31.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. HRI currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.73 | $1.43 | +95.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $-0.21 | $0.21 | +201.2% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.87 | $2.07 | +11.0% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.31 | $2.22 | -4.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2010 | 129 | 90.4% | -65.8% | +135.6% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 30 | 30.2% | +40.3% | +311.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 8 | 16.0% | +33.6% | +409.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.4% | +50.2% | +395.2% |
| May 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 1.5% | -53.5% | +148.7% |
| Jun 2015 | Nov 2017 | 124 | 64.2% | -43.8% | +159.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 45.2% | -10.6% | +211.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 23.0% | -39.0% | +254.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 11.2% | -15.2% | +268.1% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 1.7% | -1.2% | +248.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Oct 2020 | 36 | 69.4% | +59.5% | +269.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.5% | +311.5% | +234.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 20.8% | -6.8% | +6.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Oct 2025 | 15 | 19.2% | +11.6% | +1.5% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2 | 1.1% | N/A | +3.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 13 | 31.7% | N/A | +13.7% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 0.9% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 25 | — | +19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) is trading 0.9% below its 200-week moving average of $136.55. The current price is $135.26.
What is HRI's 200-week moving average price?
Herc Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $136.55 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
HRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is HRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HRI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 11.1%. Return on equity is 2.6%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19 years, $100 invested in HRI would have grown to $236, compared to $697 for the S&P 500. That's 4.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HRI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HRI pay a dividend?
Yes. Herc Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 202.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18