HPQ
HP Inc. Technology - Computer Hardware Investor Relations →
HP Inc. (HPQ) closed at $19.65 as of 2026-02-02, trading 29.3% below its 200-week moving average of $27.79. This places HPQ in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -30.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, HPQ is in oversold territory.
Over the past 3296 weeks of data, HPQ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HPQ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.1%.
With a market cap of $18.4 billion, HPQ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.0%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -52.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HPQ would have grown to $1166, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. HPQ has returned 7.7% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: HPQ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HPQ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying HPQ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.5% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +18.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.5% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HPQ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HPQ has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +29.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Dec 1964 | 105 | 25.3% | -17.1% | +71953.8% |
| May 1970 | Mar 1971 | 43 | 48.2% | +16.0% | +24503.7% |
| May 1971 | May 1971 | 1 | 0.6% | +49.6% | +21951.2% |
| Jul 1971 | Aug 1971 | 2 | 1.7% | +86.2% | +21808.0% |
| Nov 1971 | Nov 1971 | 3 | 1.6% | +108.8% | +21754.9% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 4 | 7.9% | +46.6% | +12107.3% |
| Nov 1974 | Jan 1975 | 12 | 15.8% | +65.5% | +12340.6% |
| Aug 1976 | Aug 1976 | 1 | 0.3% | -10.6% | +8424.0% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 5 | 9.2% | -12.1% | +8724.6% |
| Dec 1976 | Jul 1978 | 84 | 26.7% | -15.7% | +8724.6% |
| Aug 1978 | Aug 1978 | 1 | 0.6% | +31.5% | +8583.8% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 12.4% | +30.5% | +8927.0% |
| Jan 1979 | Mar 1979 | 5 | 3.8% | +59.7% | +8404.5% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 1 | 0.2% | +36.3% | +2652.6% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 10 | 13.6% | +36.5% | +2606.3% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 4 | 0.9% | +83.3% | +2233.1% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 2.0% | +14.9% | +1849.1% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 0.6% | -6.9% | +1783.7% |
| Sep 1989 | Mar 1991 | 78 | 47.5% | -32.7% | +1631.1% |
| Apr 1991 | May 1991 | 3 | 5.0% | +74.5% | +1751.3% |
| Sep 1991 | Sep 1991 | 1 | 1.0% | +22.4% | +1703.1% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 2 | 1.8% | +14.7% | +1717.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 7 | 6.8% | -30.8% | +135.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Nov 2004 | 196 | 63.8% | -37.7% | +128.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 1 | 0.6% | +63.9% | +266.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 38 | 28.9% | +51.1% | +111.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 0.8% | -12.6% | +57.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Jan 2011 | 21 | 12.5% | -19.4% | +67.1% |
| Feb 2011 | Jan 2014 | 151 | 64.1% | -36.6% | +57.8% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 3.9% | +38.2% | +143.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 13 | 20.1% | +34.6% | +137.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 2.9% | +68.8% | +133.4% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 7.9% | +19.0% | +46.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 24 | 24.4% | +82.8% | +40.6% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 2.1% | +56.7% | +28.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 4.6% | +73.6% | +30.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 1.6% | +42.6% | -16.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Ongoing | 48+ | 30.4% | Ongoing | -27.8% |
| Average | 24 | — | +29.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02