HPK
HighPeak Energy, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) closed at $4.79 as of 2026-02-02, trading 69.0% below its 200-week moving average of $15.46. This places HPK in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -70.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 353 weeks of data, HPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HPK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +65.8%.
With a market cap of $604 million, HPK is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 3.3%. The stock trades at 0.4x book value.
Share count has increased 30.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HPK would have grown to $50, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. HPK has returned -9.7% annualized vs 16.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: HPK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HPK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying HPK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +56.9% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +15.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.3% vs +27.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HPK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HPK has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +65.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2020 | Dec 2020 | 16 | 56.3% | -13.0% | -50.2% |
| Mar 2021 | May 2021 | 11 | 35.1% | +199.4% | -30.1% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 2.9% | +192.6% | -47.9% |
| Aug 2021 | Oct 2021 | 7 | 11.9% | +159.7% | -42.7% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2023 | 17 | 28.0% | +2.1% | -65.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 4.2% | +3.6% | -66.5% |
| Dec 2023 | Feb 2024 | 10 | 20.4% | -0.5% | -65.4% |
| Mar 2024 | Jul 2024 | 19 | 16.1% | -17.7% | -66.4% |
| Jul 2024 | Ongoing | 80+ | 74.8% | Ongoing | -66.1% |
| Average | 18 | — | +65.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02