HP
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas Drilling Investor Relations →
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) closed at $40.91 as of 2026-09-18, trading 30.1% above its 200-week moving average of $31.45. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2348 weeks of data, HP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 46 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, HP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -4.6%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HP would have grown to $2151, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. HP has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 37 historical episodes, buying HP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.8% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +12.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +53.5% vs +27.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.17 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $31.24 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.42 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $-0.11 | -210.5% |
| 2026-05-06 | $-0.04 | $-0.38 | -840.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.11 | $-0.15 | -241.9% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.26 | $-0.01 | -103.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HP has crossed below its 200-week MA 46 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1986 | 258 | 61.6% | -45.9% | +1596.1% |
| Oct 1986 | Nov 1986 | 3 | 5.1% | +5.1% | +2637.4% |
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 3.9% | -8.0% | +2505.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 16 | 18.9% | +4.5% | +2505.5% |
| Jun 1988 | Jan 1989 | 28 | 10.4% | +29.8% | +2405.3% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 3 | 1.8% | -7.7% | +1927.1% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 6.2% | -9.6% | +2011.4% |
| Dec 1990 | Feb 1991 | 7 | 8.3% | -25.4% | +1908.4% |
| Feb 1991 | Feb 1991 | 1 | 0.6% | -16.8% | +1890.1% |
| Mar 1991 | Sep 1992 | 78 | 26.4% | -15.8% | +1890.1% |
| Oct 1992 | Feb 1993 | 16 | 11.3% | +25.2% | +1940.3% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 1.1% | +22.1% | +1820.2% |
| Jan 1995 | Feb 1995 | 2 | 3.3% | +31.6% | +1793.8% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 3 | 7.1% | +117.6% | +1825.7% |
| Jul 1998 | Oct 1998 | 12 | 19.0% | +17.0% | +981.8% |
| Nov 1998 | Apr 1999 | 21 | 27.0% | +24.4% | +1007.2% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.3% | +63.1% | +880.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 5 | 9.1% | +58.2% | +927.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2000 | 14 | 19.1% | +42.7% | +844.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 10.4% | +25.7% | +749.6% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 4 | 9.7% | +36.6% | +746.2% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +26.6% | +671.5% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 3 | 6.6% | +30.7% | +556.6% |
| May 2004 | Jun 2004 | 8 | 8.1% | +60.5% | +511.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 6 | 8.4% | +106.8% | +508.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 43.1% | +73.4% | +216.6% |
| Aug 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 2.4% | +13.8% | +129.3% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | +75.5% | +118.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 6.3% | +17.9% | +84.8% |
| May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | 1.4% | +51.6% | +71.9% |
| Jun 2012 | Jul 2012 | 4 | 4.6% | +48.6% | +78.6% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 9.3% | -11.2% | +17.9% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 10.7% | -18.0% | +17.0% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 5.6% | +6.3% | +12.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Jun 2016 | 49 | 31.3% | +8.9% | +8.8% |
| Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | 10 | 13.2% | -12.7% | +2.4% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 6.7% | -17.9% | -1.2% |
| Mar 2017 | Dec 2017 | 39 | 33.9% | +7.5% | -1.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 15 | 19.0% | +1.5% | +28.2% |
| May 2019 | Feb 2022 | 144 | 74.5% | -60.3% | +14.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +30.8% | +51.9% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 5 | 11.4% | -33.1% | +34.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 3 | 3.5% | -16.7% | +33.6% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 11.2% | -5.9% | +31.3% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 | 50 | 54.4% | +12.2% | +38.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 1 | 0.8% | N/A | +31.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +17.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) is currently 30.1% above its 200-week moving average of $31.45. It would need to fall to $31.45 to cross below the line.
What is HP's 200-week moving average price?
Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HP drops below its 200-week moving average?
HP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 46 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is HP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 12.1%. Return on equity is -4.6%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in HP would have grown to $2151, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HP pay a dividend?
Yes. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 241.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18