HP
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas Drilling Investor Relations →
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) closed at $34.97 as of 2026-06-19, trading 10.7% above its 200-week moving average of $31.59. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 24.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2335 weeks of data, HP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 45 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.4%.
With a market cap of $3.5 billion, HP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -13.0%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HP would have grown to $1829, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. HP has returned 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying HP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.4% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.47 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $38.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $40.35 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.78 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HP has crossed below its 200-week MA 45 times with an average 1-year return of +17.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1986 | 258 | 61.6% | -45.9% | +1341.7% |
| Oct 1986 | Nov 1986 | 3 | 5.1% | +5.1% | +2226.9% |
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 3.9% | -8.0% | +2114.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 16 | 18.9% | +4.5% | +2114.7% |
| Jun 1988 | Jan 1989 | 28 | 10.4% | +29.8% | +2029.5% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 3 | 1.8% | -7.7% | +1623.1% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 6.2% | -9.6% | +1694.7% |
| Dec 1990 | Feb 1991 | 7 | 8.3% | -25.4% | +1607.2% |
| Feb 1991 | Feb 1991 | 1 | 0.5% | -16.8% | +1591.6% |
| Mar 1991 | Sep 1992 | 77 | 26.4% | -15.8% | +1591.6% |
| Oct 1992 | Feb 1993 | 16 | 11.2% | +25.2% | +1634.3% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 1.1% | +22.1% | +1532.2% |
| Jan 1995 | Feb 1995 | 2 | 3.7% | +31.6% | +1509.8% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 3 | 7.0% | +117.6% | +1536.9% |
| Jul 1998 | Oct 1998 | 12 | 19.0% | +17.0% | +819.5% |
| Nov 1998 | Apr 1999 | 21 | 27.0% | +24.4% | +844.0% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.3% | +63.1% | +733.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 5 | 9.1% | +58.2% | +773.7% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2000 | 14 | 19.1% | +42.7% | +702.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 10.4% | +25.7% | +622.2% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 4 | 10.0% | +36.5% | +621.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +26.6% | +555.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 16.9% | +44.2% | +619.2% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 3 | 6.5% | +30.7% | +458.1% |
| May 2004 | Jun 2004 | 8 | 7.9% | +60.5% | +419.4% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 6 | 8.3% | +106.8% | +416.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 43.1% | +73.4% | +169.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 2.5% | +13.8% | +95.2% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | +75.5% | +85.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 6.3% | +17.9% | +57.1% |
| May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | 1.4% | +51.2% | +46.1% |
| Jun 2012 | Jul 2012 | 4 | 4.6% | +48.6% | +51.9% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 9.3% | -11.2% | +0.2% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 4 | 10.6% | -18.0% | -0.6% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 5.5% | +6.3% | -4.2% |
| Jul 2015 | Jun 2016 | 49 | 31.2% | +8.9% | -7.5% |
| Jul 2016 | Sep 2016 | 10 | 13.1% | -12.7% | -13.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 7.0% | -17.9% | -16.0% |
| Mar 2017 | Dec 2017 | 39 | 34.0% | +7.5% | -16.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 15 | 18.9% | +1.5% | +9.0% |
| May 2019 | Feb 2022 | 144 | 74.5% | -60.3% | -2.7% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 5 | 11.3% | -33.1% | +14.6% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 3 | 3.5% | -16.7% | +13.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 6 | 11.1% | -5.9% | +11.6% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 | 50 | 54.4% | +12.2% | +17.5% |
| Average | 20 | — | +17.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) is currently 10.7% above its 200-week moving average of $31.59. It would need to fall to $31.59 to cross below the line.
What is HP's 200-week moving average price?
Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.59 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HP drops below its 200-week moving average?
HP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 45 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is HP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HP as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 10.3%. Return on equity is -13.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in HP would have grown to $1829, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HP pay a dividend?
Yes. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 275.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19