HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Residential Construction Investor Relations →
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) closed at $131.78 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.1% above its 200-week moving average of $115.51. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2184 weeks of data, HOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HOV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.7%.
With a market cap of $772 million, HOV is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 4.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.3% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HOV would have grown to $88, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. HOV has returned -0.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HOV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HOV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying HOV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.4% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.5% vs +21.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HOV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HOV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HOV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $93.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $101.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $110.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $122.35 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $136.46 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HOV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HOV has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +26.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 3 | 7.0% | +43.6% | +386.6% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 1 | 2.2% | +30.6% | +36.0% |
| Aug 1988 | Jan 1989 | 23 | 15.8% | +49.2% | +29.8% |
| Jan 1989 | Apr 1989 | 11 | 16.1% | -18.6% | +20.5% |
| Sep 1989 | Dec 1991 | 117 | 75.1% | -66.2% | +5.4% |
| Jun 1994 | Sep 1997 | 168 | 50.7% | -39.3% | +12.5% |
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.9% | +15.5% | +45.4% |
| Nov 1997 | Nov 1997 | 2 | 9.2% | +20.4% | +49.3% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.4% | +49.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 9.5% | +20.4% | +63.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 7.9% | -13.8% | +54.8% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 4.0% | -14.0% | +48.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 2000 | 56 | 27.4% | +4.7% | +57.6% |
| Nov 2000 | Nov 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +65.7% | +39.4% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2012 | 331 | 97.7% | -35.9% | -85.7% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 2 | 2.6% | -47.7% | +36.6% |
| Sep 2014 | Nov 2014 | 8 | 16.8% | -49.5% | +33.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Nov 2017 | 149 | 65.1% | -59.4% | +46.4% |
| Dec 2017 | Dec 2017 | 2 | 9.3% | -53.6% | +109.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Nov 2020 | 146 | 87.3% | -74.6% | +105.9% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 3.2% | +290.1% | +289.9% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 7.7% | +287.4% | +301.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 5 | 5.2% | +53.0% | +183.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 14.7% | +143.2% | +227.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 23 | 27.7% | +124.0% | +182.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 3.0% | +23.5% | +29.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 13 | 13.9% | +2.4% | +26.3% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 5 | 9.3% | N/A | +27.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 6.8% | N/A | +23.4% |
| Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | 6 | 15.5% | N/A | +19.3% |
| Average | 36 | — | +26.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) is currently 14.1% above its 200-week moving average of $115.51. It would need to fall to $115.51 to cross below the line.
What is HOV's 200-week moving average price?
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $115.51 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HOV drops below its 200-week moving average?
HOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is HOV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HOV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 4.4%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HOV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in HOV would have grown to $88, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's -0.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HOV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19