HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Residential Construction Investor Relations →
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) closed at $104.05 as of 2026-03-20, trading 6.6% below its 200-week moving average of $111.41. This places HOV in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2171 weeks of data, HOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HOV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.7%.
With a market cap of $618 million, HOV is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.3% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HOV would have grown to $69, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. HOV has returned -1.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HOV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HOV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying HOV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.1% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.5% vs +21.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HOV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HOV has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +27.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 3 | 7.0% | +43.6% | +284.2% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 1 | 2.2% | +30.6% | +7.4% |
| Aug 1988 | Jan 1989 | 23 | 15.8% | +49.2% | +2.4% |
| Jan 1989 | Apr 1989 | 11 | 16.1% | -18.6% | -4.9% |
| Sep 1989 | Dec 1991 | 117 | 75.1% | -66.2% | -16.8% |
| Jun 1994 | Sep 1997 | 168 | 50.7% | -39.3% | -11.2% |
| Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 1.9% | +15.5% | +14.8% |
| Nov 1997 | Nov 1997 | 2 | 9.2% | +20.4% | +17.9% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.4% | +17.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 9.5% | +20.4% | +29.3% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 7.9% | -13.8% | +22.2% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 4.0% | -14.0% | +16.8% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 2000 | 56 | 27.4% | +4.7% | +24.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Nov 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +65.7% | +10.1% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2012 | 331 | 97.7% | -35.9% | -88.7% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 2 | 2.6% | -47.7% | +7.8% |
| Sep 2014 | Nov 2014 | 8 | 16.8% | -49.5% | +5.6% |
| Jan 2015 | Nov 2017 | 149 | 65.1% | -59.4% | +15.6% |
| Dec 2017 | Dec 2017 | 2 | 9.3% | -53.6% | +65.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Nov 2020 | 146 | 87.3% | -74.6% | +62.6% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 3.2% | +290.1% | +207.8% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 7.7% | +287.4% | +216.6% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 5 | 5.2% | +53.0% | +124.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 14.7% | +143.2% | +158.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 23 | 27.7% | +124.0% | +123.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 3.0% | +23.5% | +2.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 13 | 13.9% | N/A | -0.3% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 5 | 9.3% | N/A | +0.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 6.6% | Ongoing | -2.5% |
| Average | 37 | — | +27.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOV below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) is trading 6.6% below its 200-week moving average of $111.41. The current price is $104.05.
What is HOV's 200-week moving average price?
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $111.41 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HOV drops below its 200-week moving average?
HOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is HOV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HOV as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 19.1%. Return on equity is 6.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HOV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in HOV would have grown to $69, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's -1.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. HOV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20