HON
Honeywell International Inc. Industrials - Conglomerate Investor Relations →
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) closed at $206.46 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.4% above its 200-week moving average of $201.54. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 0.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.40 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3328 weeks of data, HON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.4%.
With a market cap of $65.4 billion, HON is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 46.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HON would have grown to $3069, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. HON has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.2% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +19.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.2% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HON would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HON's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $201.68 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $211.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $223.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $235.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $250.03 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $1.82 | $1.95 | +7.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $4.64 | $4.90 | +5.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | $5.07 | $5.18 | +2.1% |
| 2025-10-23 | $5.13 | $5.64 | +9.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HON's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HON has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +16.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1966 | Aug 1967 | 72 | 26.0% | -1.6% | +20814.4% |
| Oct 1967 | Jan 1968 | 11 | 6.7% | -9.3% | +20616.9% |
| Jan 1968 | Feb 1971 | 160 | 43.9% | -6.8% | +20687.8% |
| Mar 1971 | Apr 1971 | 6 | 3.9% | +14.6% | +25977.9% |
| Nov 1971 | Nov 1971 | 1 | 1.1% | +18.1% | +26632.3% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 4 | 22.4% | +20.7% | +21164.6% |
| Oct 1974 | Nov 1974 | 2 | 4.2% | +15.5% | +20637.4% |
| Nov 1974 | Jan 1975 | 10 | 13.7% | +10.9% | +19688.1% |
| Sep 1975 | Oct 1975 | 2 | 2.6% | +25.9% | +18706.8% |
| Nov 1975 | Nov 1975 | 1 | 3.7% | +20.0% | +18974.2% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 3 | 1.0% | +12.9% | +18373.4% |
| Feb 1978 | Feb 1978 | 1 | 0.1% | -12.0% | +14893.0% |
| Jul 1978 | Jul 1978 | 1 | 0.3% | +6.7% | +14618.6% |
| Jul 1978 | Jul 1978 | 1 | 2.2% | +3.7% | +14828.1% |
| Sep 1978 | Jun 1979 | 39 | 20.9% | +29.2% | +14728.5% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 2 | 2.2% | +53.9% | +14348.9% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 2.0% | -7.2% | +11163.8% |
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 1 | 2.2% | -6.8% | +10917.5% |
| Feb 1982 | Feb 1983 | 55 | 26.7% | -5.9% | +10827.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Jul 1989 | 91 | 30.5% | N/A | +6060.3% |
| Oct 1989 | Oct 1989 | 1 | 8.7% | -12.0% | +6221.5% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 2 | 1.0% | -9.4% | +5776.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Jun 1991 | 45 | 22.5% | +32.7% | +6229.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Oct 2000 | 17 | 25.1% | +6.9% | +1038.9% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 7 | 16.2% | -9.2% | +770.7% |
| Jun 2001 | Jan 2004 | 134 | 53.1% | -5.5% | +907.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 76 | 45.2% | -11.0% | +646.3% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 9.0% | +43.8% | +637.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 6.1% | +16.3% | +650.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 1.7% | +44.7% | +612.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +46.4% | +608.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 17.9% | +93.5% | +112.1% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 8.7% | +69.4% | +76.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +61.3% | +71.4% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 2 | 1.2% | +19.7% | +31.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 5.5% | +13.1% | +32.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 0.4% | +9.8% | +20.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 4.8% | +14.9% | +20.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.1% | +30.2% | +12.7% |
| Average | 20 | — | +16.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HON below its 200-week moving average?
No. Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is currently 2.4% above its 200-week moving average of $201.54. It would need to fall to $201.54 to cross below the line.
What is HON's 200-week moving average price?
Honeywell International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $201.54 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HON drops below its 200-week moving average?
HON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is HON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HON as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 46.6%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in HON would have grown to $3069, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HON has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HON pay a dividend?
Yes. Honeywell International Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 136.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18