HOMB
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB) closed at $31.07 as of 2026-07-31, trading 26.1% above its 200-week moving average of $24.63. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 26.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, HOMB is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1001 weeks of data, HOMB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HOMB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.9%.
With a market cap of $6.2 billion, HOMB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 19.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HOMB would have grown to $952, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming HOMB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HOMB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HOMB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying HOMB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.9% vs +18.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HOMB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HOMB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HOMB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $26.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.44 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HOMB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HOMB has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +23.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2007 | Aug 2007 | 11 | 11.5% | +3.6% | +852.2% |
| Aug 2007 | Oct 2007 | 5 | 6.8% | +20.2% | +877.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2008 | 26 | 13.0% | +25.7% | +881.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 2.8% | -3.9% | +897.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 10 | 28.5% | +21.0% | +831.9% |
| May 2009 | Jul 2009 | 10 | 10.6% | +41.6% | +872.9% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 3.0% | +17.3% | +828.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.1% | +72.0% | +748.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2020 | 111 | 46.2% | -5.7% | +90.8% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 1.0% | +28.6% | +90.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +28.8% | +71.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.9% | +37.6% | +67.0% |
| Average | 15 | — | +23.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOMB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB) is currently 26.1% above its 200-week moving average of $24.63. It would need to fall to $24.63 to cross below the line.
What is HOMB's 200-week moving average price?
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR)'s 200-week moving average is $24.63 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HOMB drops below its 200-week moving average?
HOMB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HOMB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HOMB as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HOMB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.2 years, $100 invested in HOMB would have grown to $952, compared to $694 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. HOMB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HOMB pay a dividend?
Yes. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) currently pays a dividend yield of 276.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31