HOMB
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB) closed at $29.79 as of 2026-09-18, trading 20.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.74. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1008 weeks of data, HOMB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HOMB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.9%.
With a market cap of $6.0 billion, HOMB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 19.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HOMB would have grown to $920, compared to $709 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming HOMB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HOMB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HOMB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying HOMB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.9% vs +18.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HOMB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HOMB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HOMB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-14.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $27.17 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $28.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $29.38 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $31.98 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $0.61 | $0.64 | +5.1% |
| 2026-04-15 | $0.59 | $0.60 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | $0.60 | $0.60 | +0.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HOMB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HOMB has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +23.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2007 | Aug 2007 | 11 | 11.5% | +3.6% | +819.8% |
| Aug 2007 | Oct 2007 | 5 | 6.8% | +20.2% | +843.8% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2008 | 26 | 13.0% | +25.7% | +847.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 2.8% | -3.9% | +863.4% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 10 | 28.5% | +21.0% | +800.2% |
| May 2009 | Jul 2009 | 10 | 10.6% | +41.6% | +839.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 3.0% | +17.3% | +797.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.1% | +72.0% | +719.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2020 | 111 | 46.2% | -5.7% | +84.4% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 1.0% | +28.6% | +84.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +28.8% | +65.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.9% | +37.6% | +61.4% |
| Average | 15 | — | +23.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOMB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB) is currently 20.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.74. It would need to fall to $24.74 to cross below the line.
What is HOMB's 200-week moving average price?
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR)'s 200-week moving average is $24.74 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HOMB drops below its 200-week moving average?
HOMB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HOMB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HOMB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HOMB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.4 years, $100 invested in HOMB would have grown to $920, compared to $709 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. HOMB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HOMB pay a dividend?
Yes. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) currently pays a dividend yield of 289.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18