HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Motorcycles Investor Relations →
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) closed at $25.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.9% below its 200-week moving average of $30.16. This places HOG in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -15.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, HOG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2036 weeks of data, HOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HOG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.0%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, HOG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.1%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 23.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HOG would have grown to $941, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. HOG has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HOG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HOG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying HOG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.0% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.2% vs +23.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HOG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HOG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HOG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $8.85 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $11.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $16.98 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $31.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $211.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HOG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HOG has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +9.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 14 | 30.6% | +80.4% | +10788.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 14 | 12.8% | +16.5% | +0.5% |
| May 2003 | Jun 2003 | 2 | 6.0% | +39.0% | +2.0% |
| Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 4 | 9.8% | +48.5% | -0.7% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 1 | 1.0% | +24.9% | -7.9% |
| Apr 2005 | Jul 2005 | 13 | 9.4% | +9.8% | -10.2% |
| Aug 2005 | Oct 2005 | 10 | 11.0% | +19.2% | -16.7% |
| Mar 2006 | Mar 2006 | 1 | 2.5% | +26.0% | -17.1% |
| Apr 2006 | Apr 2006 | 1 | 1.1% | +25.0% | -18.2% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 2 | 1.3% | +32.8% | -18.2% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 2.5% | +24.9% | -17.3% |
| Aug 2007 | Nov 2010 | 171 | 81.6% | -24.6% | -26.7% |
| May 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.3% | -12.6% | -36.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2016 | 59 | 29.7% | -0.2% | -38.1% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 5 | 5.9% | -23.9% | -41.5% |
| Jun 2017 | Jan 2018 | 28 | 14.6% | -19.6% | -40.6% |
| Jan 2018 | Nov 2020 | 147 | 63.2% | -20.1% | -33.5% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 3 | 3.5% | +3.5% | -19.3% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 7 | 7.7% | +7.8% | -14.4% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.9% | +31.2% | -15.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 6.6% | +2.0% | -12.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 10.4% | +5.1% | -13.7% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 9 | 7.9% | +5.1% | -17.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 18 | 25.1% | +5.4% | -19.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 4 | 3.9% | -16.9% | -19.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 17 | 12.2% | -30.9% | -21.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.7% | -15.2% | -25.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Ongoing | 90+ | 43.2% | Ongoing | -22.3% |
| Average | 23 | — | +9.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is trading 14.9% below its 200-week moving average of $30.16. The current price is $25.67.
What is HOG's 200-week moving average price?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $30.16 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HOG drops below its 200-week moving average?
HOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is HOG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HOG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 83 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 6.2%. Return on equity is 7.1%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HOG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in HOG would have grown to $941, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HOG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HOG pay a dividend?
Yes. Harley-Davidson, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 287.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19