HNI
HNI Corporation Consumer Cyclical - Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances Investor Relations →
HNI Corporation (HNI) closed at $45.01 as of 2026-07-31, trading 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $38.30. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, HNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HNI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.0%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, HNI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 0.3%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 72.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HNI would have grown to $812, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. HNI has returned 6.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 153.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HNI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HNI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying HNI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 66% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.1% vs +16.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HNI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HNI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HNI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.79 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $6.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HNI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HNI has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +12.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Oct 1982 | 41 | 29.8% | +20.8% | +4780.7% |
| Jun 1984 | Aug 1984 | 6 | 11.5% | +11.5% | +4405.3% |
| Aug 1984 | Apr 1985 | 33 | 22.8% | +29.9% | +4463.8% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 4 | 4.1% | +97.0% | +2522.5% |
| Dec 1995 | Apr 1996 | 18 | 17.6% | +42.0% | +765.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 0.0% | -9.3% | +374.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Mar 2000 | 28 | 29.9% | +26.6% | +376.3% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 0.2% | +5.0% | +301.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 6 | 10.1% | -8.3% | +291.9% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 1.8% | +16.8% | +291.1% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 10 | 10.1% | +11.3% | +300.7% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 2 | 1.4% | +14.5% | +281.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 8 | 17.3% | +25.3% | +300.3% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 11 | 6.1% | +9.3% | +108.8% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2010 | 156 | 77.7% | -44.0% | +97.5% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 0.4% | -0.9% | +176.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 1.6% | -9.6% | +181.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 11 | 9.5% | +2.2% | +187.9% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 3 | 4.1% | +6.1% | +201.5% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 4.9% | -0.1% | +210.9% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 13 | 28.4% | +22.9% | +218.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 3.0% | +41.1% | +235.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 11 | 14.5% | +59.0% | +75.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 2 | 4.8% | +11.0% | +61.8% |
| Jun 2017 | Oct 2017 | 17 | 15.3% | -1.2% | +55.4% |
| Oct 2017 | Jul 2018 | 39 | 19.7% | +9.4% | +69.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 18 | 15.1% | -3.8% | +53.4% |
| Feb 2019 | Oct 2019 | 34 | 20.7% | -11.5% | +50.8% |
| Dec 2019 | Oct 2020 | 42 | 42.4% | -3.9% | +48.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 5.9% | +18.6% | +67.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 3 | 4.7% | +28.8% | +61.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.9% | -16.8% | +53.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2023 | 55 | 22.4% | -4.4% | +52.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 14 | 21.8% | N/A | +33.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +12.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HNI below its 200-week moving average?
No. HNI Corporation (HNI) is currently 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $38.30. It would need to fall to $38.30 to cross below the line.
What is HNI's 200-week moving average price?
HNI Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.30 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HNI drops below its 200-week moving average?
HNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is HNI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HNI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 0.3%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HNI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in HNI would have grown to $812, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 6.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HNI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HNI pay a dividend?
Yes. HNI Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 321.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31