HMN
Horace Mann Educators Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) closed at $52.11 as of 2026-07-31, trading 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $36.21. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 44.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, HMN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1763 weeks of data, HMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.7%.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, HMN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.7%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HMN would have grown to $879, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. HMN has returned 6.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 47.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 33 historical episodes, buying HMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.3% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +6.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.1% vs +27.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $37.49 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $40.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $43.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $47.31 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $51.84 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HMN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +0.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1993 | Dec 1993 | 5 | 8.1% | -11.0% | +896.4% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 7 | 4.8% | -6.3% | +909.6% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 0.4% | -6.6% | +890.9% |
| Sep 1994 | May 1995 | 35 | 17.9% | +14.5% | +870.5% |
| Jun 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 3.3% | +39.9% | +916.8% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 6.8% | -17.0% | +434.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2002 | 116 | 48.5% | -26.3% | +393.8% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | -27.5% | +409.7% |
| May 2002 | May 2004 | 102 | 28.3% | -24.0% | +412.5% |
| Jul 2004 | Jul 2004 | 1 | 1.4% | +26.6% | +515.8% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 8.2% | -50.1% | +461.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 6.8% | -44.4% | +409.4% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2010 | 109 | 66.8% | -51.0% | +410.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 0.8% | +15.9% | +491.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 16.8% | +41.5% | +543.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Dec 2011 | 3 | 12.3% | +48.1% | +561.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 3 | 5.0% | -1.4% | +91.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 19.2% | +16.9% | +68.0% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 14.6% | +12.0% | +69.5% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 2 | 0.2% | +9.4% | +64.1% |
| Jun 2021 | Jul 2021 | 7 | 3.0% | -2.8% | +62.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 2.3% | +0.7% | +61.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.1% | +3.2% | +65.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 1.3% | -8.3% | +62.1% |
| May 2022 | Jun 2022 | 3 | 5.6% | -14.3% | +61.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | 4 | 10.2% | -11.2% | +78.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 5.0% | -18.6% | +63.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 3.3% | -5.2% | +65.6% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2024 | 53 | 20.0% | -3.9% | +60.3% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +19.6% | +64.6% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 8 | 5.1% | +31.9% | +66.5% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 1.7% | +27.9% | +66.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +45.0% | +63.8% |
| Average | 16 | — | +0.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) is currently 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $36.21. It would need to fall to $36.21 to cross below the line.
What is HMN's 200-week moving average price?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation's 200-week moving average is $36.21 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
HMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is HMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HMN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 13.1%. Return on equity is 11.7%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in HMN would have grown to $879, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 6.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HMN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HMN pay a dividend?
Yes. Horace Mann Educators Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 277.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31