HMC
Honda Motor Consumer Cyclical Investor Relations →
Honda Motor (HMC) closed at $32.52 as of 2026-09-11, trading 13.1% above its 200-week moving average of $28.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, HMC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2377 weeks of data, HMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.1%.
With a market cap of $42.2 billion, HMC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 634.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -0.8%. The stock trades at 0.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 22.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HMC would have grown to $982, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. HMC has returned 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -45.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 40 historical episodes, buying HMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.2% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +6.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.4% vs +19.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HMC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +11.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1982 | May 1982 | 10 | 23.1% | +23.2% | +4018.6% |
| May 1982 | Oct 1982 | 19 | 19.6% | +31.1% | +4235.4% |
| Feb 1990 | Dec 1992 | 147 | 28.9% | -6.7% | +910.7% |
| Dec 1992 | Feb 1993 | 5 | 7.9% | +32.6% | +906.0% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 6.1% | +35.4% | +206.5% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 2 | 0.7% | +14.5% | +184.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 5.3% | +6.4% | +195.1% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 0.0% | +8.2% | +176.4% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.0% | +16.9% | +171.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 27.2% | +54.6% | +261.8% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -1.1% | +161.5% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 2.1% | +5.8% | +156.9% |
| Oct 2002 | Jun 2003 | 32 | 19.4% | +7.5% | +161.4% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 1.1% | +29.5% | +159.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 6 | 5.2% | -24.3% | +60.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 39.6% | +11.2% | +73.0% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 5 | 4.4% | +14.7% | +49.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +23.9% | +49.7% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 9 | 8.7% | +24.3% | +50.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 20 | 11.1% | +9.8% | +48.3% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 4.2% | +25.5% | +42.0% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 4 | 1.7% | +23.1% | +42.0% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.4% | +41.1% |
| Sep 2012 | Nov 2012 | 8 | 8.3% | +27.8% | +45.7% |
| Mar 2014 | Mar 2015 | 50 | 15.2% | -2.0% | +26.1% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 2 | 2.7% | -19.8% | +28.7% |
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2015 | 7 | 8.4% | -19.4% | +29.9% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2017 | 114 | 25.5% | -0.9% | +36.7% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 2.4% | -9.0% | +40.1% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 4 | 4.1% | -20.5% | +38.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 15 | 12.5% | -7.2% | +41.2% |
| Jan 2019 | Nov 2019 | 40 | 18.8% | -9.4% | +38.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 44 | 27.8% | +4.2% | +41.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.4% | +12.3% | +44.4% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +3.1% | +41.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 3 | 1.6% | +4.0% | +40.5% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 13 | 7.3% | +12.3% | +42.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Feb 2023 | 23 | 15.5% | +34.1% | +41.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 2.2% | +49.6% | +44.1% |
| Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 | 7 | 12.8% | +14.1% | +24.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.2% | +14.3% | +22.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 6.8% | -3.4% | +30.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Jul 2026 | 21 | 14.3% | N/A | +19.4% |
| Average | 16 | — | +11.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Honda Motor (HMC) is currently 13.1% above its 200-week moving average of $28.76. It would need to fall to $28.76 to cross below the line.
What is HMC's 200-week moving average price?
Honda Motor's 200-week moving average is $28.76 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HMC drops below its 200-week moving average?
HMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is HMC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HMC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 634.5%. Return on equity is -0.8%. Price-to-book is 0.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HMC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in HMC would have grown to $982, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HMC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HMC pay a dividend?
Yes. Honda Motor currently pays a dividend yield of 421.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11