HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Hotels Investor Relations →
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) closed at $348.84 as of 2026-06-19, trading 63.7% above its 200-week moving average of $213.08. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 63.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, HLT is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 605 weeks of data, HLT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HLT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.1%.
With a market cap of $79.4 billion, HLT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. The stock trades at -13.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 11.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HLT would have grown to $686, compared to $439 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.0% vs 13.5% for the index — confirming HLT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HLT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HLT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying HLT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +58.8% after 12 months (median +70.0%), compared to +32.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +77.0% vs +41.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HLT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HLT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HLT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $299.34 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $308.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $319.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $330.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $342.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HLT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HLT has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +57.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Aug 2016 | 51 | 28.3% | -0.4% | +632.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 11 | 6.4% | +34.0% | +646.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 9 | 24.6% | +101.9% | +473.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 6.2% | +74.9% | +396.8% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 2.0% | +75.1% | +371.1% |
| Average | 15 | — | +57.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is currently 63.7% above its 200-week moving average of $213.08. It would need to fall to $213.08 to cross below the line.
What is HLT's 200-week moving average price?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $213.08 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HLT drops below its 200-week moving average?
HLT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HLT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HLT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Price-to-book is -13.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HLT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.7 years, $100 invested in HLT would have grown to $686, compared to $439 for the S&P 500. That's 18.0% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. HLT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HLT pay a dividend?
Yes. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 17.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19