HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp. Industrials - Tools & Accessories Investor Relations →
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) closed at $7.13 as of 2026-09-18, trading 19.3% below its 200-week moving average of $8.84. This places HLMN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -21.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 254 weeks of data, HLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -15.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1387 million, HLMN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 3.4%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 4.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HLMN would have grown to $70, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. HLMN has returned -7.1% annualized vs 12.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -10.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HLMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HLMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying HLMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -13.5% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 12% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -17.8% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HLMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HLMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HLMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $7.19 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $7.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $8.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.01 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $0.17 | $0.17 | +1.4% |
| 2026-04-27 | $0.08 | $0.07 | -8.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +4.3% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.20 | $0.22 | +7.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HLMN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HLMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Mar 2022 | 20 | 21.9% | -22.8% | -34.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 1.5% | -27.0% | -33.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Mar 2024 | 91 | 34.7% | -18.6% | -33.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 3.0% | -18.5% | -23.8% |
| May 2024 | Aug 2024 | 15 | 10.2% | -19.1% | -25.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.2% | +6.7% | -24.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 2 | 3.6% | -9.1% | -25.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 22 | 28.3% | -14.8% | -25.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 9 | 7.3% | N/A | -18.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 31+ | 21.0% | Ongoing | -20.3% |
| Average | 19 | — | +-15.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLMN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is trading 19.3% below its 200-week moving average of $8.84. The current price is $7.13.
What is HLMN's 200-week moving average price?
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $8.84 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HLMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
HLMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -15.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is HLMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HLMN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 3.4%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HLMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.9 years, $100 invested in HLMN would have grown to $70, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. That's -7.1% annualized vs 12.5% for the index. HLMN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18