HLF
Herbalife Ltd. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) closed at $11.90 as of 2026-06-19, trading 3.3% below its 200-week moving average of $12.31. This places HLF in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -2.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1074 weeks of data, HLF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HLF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.5%.
With a market cap of $1234 million, HLF is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 28.3%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -2.8x book value.
Share count has increased 5.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 20.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HLF would have grown to $189, compared to $872 for the S&P 500. HLF has returned 3.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HLF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HLF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HLF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.5% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.9% vs +30.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HLF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HLF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HLF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $13.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $15.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $17.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $21.06 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HLF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HLF has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +34.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 61.0% | +37.1% | +96.1% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 2 | 23.6% | +202.7% | -10.2% |
| Jan 2013 | Feb 2013 | 4 | 4.3% | +87.9% | -30.2% |
| Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 4 | 5.4% | +51.7% | -35.1% |
| Aug 2014 | May 2015 | 39 | 41.5% | +13.7% | -52.4% |
| Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 4 | 4.8% | +18.7% | -53.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 12.5% | -0.1% | -52.7% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 11 | 11.1% | +22.6% | -55.4% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 5.0% | +90.4% | -54.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 6 | 12.0% | +34.8% | -68.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 4 | 5.2% | +24.9% | -68.9% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 16 | 31.9% | +31.2% | -69.4% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 0.5% | -18.6% | -73.5% |
| Mar 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 1.5% | -31.2% | -73.5% |
| Sep 2021 | Dec 2025 | 221 | 76.1% | -48.7% | -73.2% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 2 | 5.8% | N/A | -10.7% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 8.4% | Ongoing | -4.3% |
| Average | 22 | — | +34.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLF below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) is trading 3.3% below its 200-week moving average of $12.31. The current price is $11.90.
What is HLF's 200-week moving average price?
Herbalife Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $12.31 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HLF drops below its 200-week moving average?
HLF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is HLF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HLF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 28.3%. Price-to-book is -2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HLF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.7 years, $100 invested in HLF would have grown to $189, compared to $872 for the S&P 500. That's 3.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. HLF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19