HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. Industrials - Shipbuilding Investor Relations →
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) closed at $326.45 as of 2026-07-31, trading 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $249.60. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 15.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 753 weeks of data, HII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HII at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.6%.
With a market cap of $12.9 billion, HII is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.0%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 14.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HII would have grown to $1141, compared to $702 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.3% vs 14.4% for the index — confirming HII as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $954,730.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HII vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HII Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying HII when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.9% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +3.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.7% vs +19.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HII crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HII would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HII's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $266.59 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $314.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $384.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $492.97 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $687.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HII's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HII has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 56 | 32.1% | -12.3% | +82.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 1.4% | +4.4% | +81.3% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | +19.0% | +79.5% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 4 | 3.7% | +21.5% | +82.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 16 | 9.0% | +28.7% | +86.6% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +5.2% | +84.5% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.9% | +79.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Apr 2025 | 23 | 25.0% | +74.6% | +79.1% |
| Average | 13 | — | +21.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HII below its 200-week moving average?
No. Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) is currently 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $249.60. It would need to fall to $249.60 to cross below the line.
What is HII's 200-week moving average price?
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $249.60 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HII drops below its 200-week moving average?
HII has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is HII a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HII as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.0%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HII compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.5 years, $100 invested in HII would have grown to $1141, compared to $702 for the S&P 500. That's 18.3% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. HII has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HII pay a dividend?
Yes. Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 169.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31