HIG
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Diversified Investor Relations →
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) closed at $128.25 as of 2026-06-19, trading 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $99.03. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 31.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1544 weeks of data, HIG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HIG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.6%.
With a market cap of $35.2 billion, HIG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 22.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.1% over the past three years. HIG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HIG would have grown to $698, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. HIG has returned 6.8% annualized vs 9.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HIG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HIG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying HIG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +8.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.4% vs +17.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HIG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HIG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HIG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $126.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $130.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $134.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $138.39 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $142.84 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HIG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HIG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +25.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 9.1% | +90.5% | +477.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 9 | 29.2% | +58.5% | +492.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.7% | -8.6% | +334.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2003 | 64 | 35.5% | -2.8% | +294.8% |
| Nov 2003 | Nov 2003 | 1 | 0.6% | +20.7% | +288.8% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.3% | +272.7% |
| Jan 2008 | Oct 2012 | 246 | 94.7% | -80.7% | +151.1% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +77.1% | +733.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 12 | 10.3% | +28.9% | +237.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 41 | 36.4% | +34.4% | +245.5% |
| Average | 38 | — | +25.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HIG below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) is currently 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $99.03. It would need to fall to $99.03 to cross below the line.
What is HIG's 200-week moving average price?
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $99.03 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HIG drops below its 200-week moving average?
HIG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is HIG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HIG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 15.9%. Return on equity is 22.7%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HIG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in HIG would have grown to $698, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. That's 6.8% annualized vs 9.9% for the index. HIG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HIG pay a dividend?
Yes. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 183.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19