HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Resorts & Casinos Investor Relations →
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) closed at $47.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 14.0% above its 200-week moving average of $41.79. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 426 weeks of data, HGV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HGV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.0%.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, HGV is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HGV would have grown to $114, compared to $295 for the S&P 500. HGV has returned 1.6% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: HGV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HGV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying HGV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.2% vs +43.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HGV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HGV has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +5.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2018 | Oct 2019 | 70 | 30.3% | -18.0% | +28.7% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | -19.6% | +38.9% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 52 | 60.6% | -6.1% | +38.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 6.9% | +59.0% | +60.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 6.1% | +17.1% | +40.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 9 | 12.2% | -3.4% | +25.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 6.3% | -0.8% | +17.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Jun 2025 | 48 | 22.3% | +12.1% | +20.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.4% | N/A | +16.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 6.9% | N/A | +14.9% |
| Average | 19 | — | +5.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02