HEI
HEICO Corporation Industrials - Aerospace Components Investor Relations →
HEICO Corporation (HEI) closed at $356.36 as of 2026-07-31, trading 50.5% above its 200-week moving average of $236.82. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, HEI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, HEI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HEI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
Return on equity stands at 17.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 10.4x book value.
HEI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HEI would have grown to $99602, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming HEI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HEI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HEI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying HEI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.2% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +5.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +71.2% vs +16.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HEI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HEI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HEI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-25.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $209.91 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $237.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $272.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $320.85 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $389.47 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HEI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HEI has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 4 | 11.7% | -29.9% | +216785.2% |
| Apr 1981 | Apr 1981 | 1 | 2.0% | -35.0% | +208651.6% |
| Nov 1981 | Feb 1983 | 63 | 47.8% | -24.1% | +211293.9% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 5 | 14.2% | +30.7% | +222568.4% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 2 | 7.6% | +17.6% | +225577.1% |
| Feb 1984 | Feb 1984 | 2 | 7.4% | +70.4% | +235113.2% |
| Mar 1984 | Jul 1984 | 16 | 14.9% | +70.7% | +222568.4% |
| Aug 1984 | Aug 1984 | 1 | 2.8% | +41.9% | +225577.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 16 | 26.8% | -5.7% | +103264.8% |
| Jun 1988 | Jul 1991 | 161 | 46.9% | -21.1% | +92930.4% |
| Aug 1991 | Sep 1991 | 4 | 5.7% | +17.3% | +121979.7% |
| Mar 1993 | Oct 1993 | 32 | 18.5% | +7.2% | +121253.8% |
| Mar 1994 | Jan 1995 | 44 | 20.3% | +3.8% | +116888.5% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 1 | 0.7% | +149.6% | +112559.8% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 7 | 10.7% | -11.6% | +15196.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Jul 2000 | 26 | 28.4% | +8.8% | +14517.8% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 1.8% | +24.1% | +13815.3% |
| Aug 2000 | Apr 2001 | 35 | 30.5% | +30.1% | +14475.3% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 4 | 9.6% | -8.9% | +13278.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Apr 2002 | 30 | 36.0% | -38.1% | +12204.3% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.0% | -48.1% | +12698.1% |
| May 2002 | Sep 2003 | 67 | 50.3% | -34.9% | +14590.7% |
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 3.4% | +46.3% | +15935.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 5.1% | +15.0% | +5845.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 3.1% | +13.4% | +5592.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 9.2% | +32.4% | +5920.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 5 | 19.2% | +28.0% | +6098.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Jun 2009 | 15 | 35.4% | +31.8% | +5306.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 3.4% | +26.0% | +5070.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 9.7% | +78.7% | +411.3% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +84.1% | +374.2% |
| Average | 18 | — | +18.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HEI below its 200-week moving average?
No. HEICO Corporation (HEI) is currently 50.5% above its 200-week moving average of $236.82. It would need to fall to $236.82 to cross below the line.
What is HEI's 200-week moving average price?
HEICO Corporation's 200-week moving average is $236.82 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HEI drops below its 200-week moving average?
HEI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is HEI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HEI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Return on equity is 17.2%. Price-to-book is 10.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HEI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in HEI would have grown to $99602, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 22.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HEI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HEI pay a dividend?
Yes. HEICO Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 7.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31