HDB
HDFC Bank Limited Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) closed at $25.06 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.9% below its 200-week moving average of $31.30. This places HDB in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -22.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1252 weeks of data, HDB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HDB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $128.6 billion, HDB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 13.8%. The stock trades at 10.4x book value.
Share count has increased 38.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 24.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HDB would have grown to $4706, compared to $1173 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming HDB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HDB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HDB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HDB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.9% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +18.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.4% vs +36.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HDB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HDB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HDB has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2003 | 30 | 16.3% | +44.1% | +4605.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 28 | 34.4% | +90.1% | +836.3% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 8 | 10.5% | +48.6% | +256.6% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 5 | 6.1% | +90.6% | +247.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 27.2% | +117.4% | +50.8% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +52.6% | +11.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 3.7% | +20.9% | -6.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 12.4% | +22.2% | -9.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 3.3% | +1.9% | -11.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 11 | 7.8% | +12.9% | -12.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2024 | 22 | 13.2% | +5.8% | -8.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 11 | 6.5% | +25.1% | -17.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 3 | 4.1% | +13.7% | -16.8% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.8% | +19.2% | -18.0% |
| Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | 11 | 6.6% | +18.1% | -18.9% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 25.3% | Ongoing | -15.0% |
| Average | 12 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HDB below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) is trading 19.9% below its 200-week moving average of $31.30. The current price is $25.06.
What is HDB's 200-week moving average price?
HDFC Bank Limited's 200-week moving average is $31.30 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HDB drops below its 200-week moving average?
HDB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is HDB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HDB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Return on equity is 13.8%. Price-to-book is 10.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HDB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.1 years, $100 invested in HDB would have grown to $4706, compared to $1173 for the S&P 500. That's 17.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HDB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19