HDB
HDFC Bank Limited Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) closed at $23.16 as of 2026-09-18, trading 25.2% below its 200-week moving average of $30.95. This places HDB in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -24.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1265 weeks of data, HDB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HDB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $119.0 billion, HDB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 13.8%. The stock trades at 9.3x book value.
Share count has increased 37.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 24.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HDB would have grown to $4349, compared to $1196 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.8% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming HDB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 35% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HDB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HDB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HDB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.9% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +18.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.4% vs +36.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HDB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HDB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HDB has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2003 | 30 | 16.3% | +44.1% | +4248.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Apr 2009 | 28 | 34.4% | +90.1% | +765.3% |
| Aug 2013 | Sep 2013 | 8 | 10.5% | +48.6% | +229.6% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 5 | 6.1% | +90.6% | +220.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 27.2% | +117.4% | +39.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +52.6% | +2.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 3.7% | +20.9% | -13.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 14 | 12.4% | +22.2% | -16.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 3.3% | +1.9% | -17.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 11 | 7.8% | +12.9% | -19.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2024 | 22 | 13.2% | +5.8% | -15.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 11 | 6.5% | +25.1% | -23.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 3 | 4.2% | +13.7% | -23.1% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.8% | +19.2% | -24.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | 11 | 6.6% | +18.1% | -25.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 29+ | 25.7% | Ongoing | -21.4% |
| Average | 13 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HDB below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) is trading 25.2% below its 200-week moving average of $30.95. The current price is $23.16.
What is HDB's 200-week moving average price?
HDFC Bank Limited's 200-week moving average is $30.95 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HDB drops below its 200-week moving average?
HDB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is HDB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HDB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is 13.8%. Price-to-book is 9.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HDB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.3 years, $100 invested in HDB would have grown to $4349, compared to $1196 for the S&P 500. That's 16.8% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. HDB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HDB pay a dividend?
Yes. HDFC Bank Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 176.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18