HD

The Home Depot Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Home Improvement Investor Relations →

NO
17.3% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 14.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $328.41
14-Week RSI 53

The Home Depot Inc. (HD) closed at $385.15 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.3% above its 200-week moving average of $328.41. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 2267 weeks of data, HD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.2%.

With a market cap of $383.4 billion, HD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 162.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 31.6x book value.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HD would have grown to $6250, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming HD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $999,767.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Growth of $100: HD vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After HD Crosses Below the Line?

Across 13 historical episodes, buying HD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.6% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.3% vs +27.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-03-14BRENNEMAN GREGORY DDirector$999,7672,884N/A

Historical Touches

HD has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +32.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 1984Oct 198435.8%-18.5%+232769.9%
Oct 1984Nov 198429.2%-17.3%+241726.4%
Jun 1985Apr 19864431.5%+41.5%+213035.0%
Apr 1986May 198621.9%+69.7%+190429.6%
Jul 1986Aug 198623.9%+120.6%+184825.8%
Sep 1986Oct 198676.7%+124.3%+179542.3%
Nov 1986Nov 198612.8%+47.9%+177012.0%
Dec 1986Dec 198611.0%+48.1%+173347.9%
Dec 1986Jan 198711.9%+56.4%+174552.2%
Jun 1995Jun 199510.4%+37.5%+7470.7%
Aug 1995Nov 19951010.6%+33.4%+7470.7%
Sep 2001Nov 2001919.7%-18.4%+1507.2%
May 2002Aug 200411952.8%-29.1%+1410.8%
Apr 2005May 200532.1%+15.1%+1672.2%
Jul 2006Sep 200695.4%+23.4%+1762.9%
Mar 2007Apr 200710.2%-23.3%+1588.3%
Jul 2007Dec 200912645.2%-33.1%+1578.3%
Jan 2010Feb 201032.6%+35.8%+1935.3%
Jun 2010Jul 201032.9%+36.4%+1903.3%
Aug 2010Aug 201011.9%+15.4%+1936.3%
Mar 2020Mar 2020110.5%+94.4%+190.7%
Oct 2023Oct 202312.8%+48.0%+47.3%
Average16+32.2%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02