HD
The Home Depot Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Home Improvement Investor Relations →
The Home Depot Inc. (HD) closed at $320.75 as of 2026-03-20, trading 2.5% below its 200-week moving average of $328.98. This places HD in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2273 weeks of data, HD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.2%.
With a market cap of $319.3 billion, HD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 145.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 24.9x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HD would have grown to $5240, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming HD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.6% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.3% vs +27.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HD has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +32.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1984 | Oct 1984 | 3 | 5.8% | -18.5% | +195128.9% |
| Oct 1984 | Nov 1984 | 2 | 9.2% | -17.3% | +202637.7% |
| Jun 1985 | Apr 1986 | 44 | 31.5% | +41.5% | +178583.9% |
| Apr 1986 | May 1986 | 2 | 1.9% | +69.7% | +159632.5% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 3.9% | +120.6% | +154934.4% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 7 | 6.7% | +124.3% | +150504.8% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 2.8% | +47.9% | +148383.7% |
| Dec 1986 | Dec 1986 | 1 | 1.0% | +48.1% | +145311.8% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 1 | 1.9% | +56.4% | +146321.4% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +37.5% | +6247.0% |
| Aug 1995 | Nov 1995 | 10 | 10.6% | +33.4% | +6247.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 19.7% | -18.4% | +1247.4% |
| May 2002 | Aug 2004 | 119 | 52.8% | -29.1% | +1166.6% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 2.1% | +15.1% | +1385.7% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 5.4% | +23.4% | +1461.8% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -23.3% | +1315.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2009 | 126 | 45.2% | -33.1% | +1307.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 2.6% | +35.8% | +1606.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 2.9% | +36.4% | +1579.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 1.9% | +15.4% | +1607.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.5% | +94.4% | +143.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.8% | +48.0% | +23.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 2.5% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 15 | — | +32.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, The Home Depot Inc. (HD) is trading 2.5% below its 200-week moving average of $328.98. The current price is $320.75.
What is HD's 200-week moving average price?
The Home Depot Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $328.98 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HD drops below its 200-week moving average?
HD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is HD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HD as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 145.5%. Price-to-book is 24.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in HD would have grown to $5240, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. HD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HD pay a dividend?
Yes. The Home Depot Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 291.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20