HD
The Home Depot Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Home Improvement Investor Relations →
The Home Depot Inc. (HD) closed at $385.15 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.3% above its 200-week moving average of $328.41. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2267 weeks of data, HD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.2%.
With a market cap of $383.4 billion, HD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 162.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 31.6x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HD would have grown to $6250, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming HD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $999,767.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: HD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.6% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.3% vs +27.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HD has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +32.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1984 | Oct 1984 | 3 | 5.8% | -18.5% | +232769.9% |
| Oct 1984 | Nov 1984 | 2 | 9.2% | -17.3% | +241726.4% |
| Jun 1985 | Apr 1986 | 44 | 31.5% | +41.5% | +213035.0% |
| Apr 1986 | May 1986 | 2 | 1.9% | +69.7% | +190429.6% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 3.9% | +120.6% | +184825.8% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 7 | 6.7% | +124.3% | +179542.3% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 2.8% | +47.9% | +177012.0% |
| Dec 1986 | Dec 1986 | 1 | 1.0% | +48.1% | +173347.9% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 1 | 1.9% | +56.4% | +174552.2% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +37.5% | +7470.7% |
| Aug 1995 | Nov 1995 | 10 | 10.6% | +33.4% | +7470.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 9 | 19.7% | -18.4% | +1507.2% |
| May 2002 | Aug 2004 | 119 | 52.8% | -29.1% | +1410.8% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 2.1% | +15.1% | +1672.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 5.4% | +23.4% | +1762.9% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -23.3% | +1588.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2009 | 126 | 45.2% | -33.1% | +1578.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 3 | 2.6% | +35.8% | +1935.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 2.9% | +36.4% | +1903.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 1.9% | +15.4% | +1936.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.5% | +94.4% | +190.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.8% | +48.0% | +47.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +32.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02