HCI
HCI Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) closed at $163.29 as of 2026-02-02, trading 70.0% above its 200-week moving average of $96.03. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 66.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 859 weeks of data, HCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.0%.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, HCI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 51.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 32.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.8x book value.
Share count has increased 6.3% over three years, indicating dilution. HCI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 16.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HCI would have grown to $4275, compared to $908 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.4% vs 14.2% for the index — confirming HCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 52.1% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: HCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +57.4% after 12 months (median +44.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +129.4% vs +39.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +57.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2010 | Aug 2010 | 11 | 14.8% | +12.6% | +4345.9% |
| Sep 2010 | Sep 2010 | 1 | 2.2% | +10.9% | +4455.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | +249.2% | +4028.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 2.0% | +21.3% | +567.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 8.1% | +31.3% | +587.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Dec 2016 | 41 | 25.5% | +64.7% | +595.7% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 17.9% | +37.7% | +559.6% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +28.7% | +450.2% |
| Oct 2017 | Mar 2018 | 18 | 20.3% | +44.5% | +525.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 10.7% | +122.9% | +447.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Jun 2023 | 45 | 49.9% | +4.8% | +203.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +52.6% | +188.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 12 | 14.9% | +60.2% | +189.4% |
| Average | 11 | — | +57.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02