HCI
HCI Group, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) closed at $151.55 as of 2026-03-20, trading 53.3% above its 200-week moving average of $98.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 865 weeks of data, HCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.0%.
With a market cap of $1969 million, HCI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 20.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 40.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Share count has increased 51.1% over three years, indicating dilution. HCI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 16.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HCI would have grown to $3978, compared to $855 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 24.7% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming HCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying HCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +57.4% after 12 months (median +44.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +129.4% vs +39.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +57.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2010 | Aug 2010 | 11 | 14.8% | +12.6% | +4037.0% |
| Sep 2010 | Sep 2010 | 1 | 2.2% | +10.9% | +4138.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | +249.2% | +3741.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 2.0% | +21.3% | +521.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 8.1% | +31.3% | +539.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Dec 2016 | 41 | 25.5% | +64.7% | +547.4% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 17.9% | +37.7% | +513.7% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 1 | 1.2% | +28.7% | +411.9% |
| Oct 2017 | Mar 2018 | 18 | 20.3% | +44.5% | +481.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 10.7% | +122.9% | +409.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Jun 2023 | 45 | 49.9% | +4.8% | +182.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +52.6% | +168.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 12 | 14.9% | +60.2% | +169.3% |
| Average | 11 | — | +57.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCI below its 200-week moving average?
No. HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) is currently 53.3% above its 200-week moving average of $98.85. It would need to fall to $98.85 to cross below the line.
What is HCI's 200-week moving average price?
HCI Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $98.85 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HCI drops below its 200-week moving average?
HCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is HCI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HCI as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 20.5%. Return on equity is 40.5%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HCI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.7 years, $100 invested in HCI would have grown to $3978, compared to $855 for the S&P 500. That's 24.7% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. HCI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HCI pay a dividend?
Yes. HCI Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 106.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20