HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Basic Materials - Coking Coal Investor Relations →
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) closed at $90.58 as of 2026-06-19, trading 61.8% above its 200-week moving average of $56.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 76.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.24 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 431 weeks of data, HCC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HCC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +61.8%.
With a market cap of $4.8 billion, HCC is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 6.4%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Over the past 8.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HCC would have grown to $546, compared to $323 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.6% vs 15.1% for the index — confirming HCC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HCC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HCC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying HCC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +57.4% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +19.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.0% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HCC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. HCC currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HCC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HCC has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +61.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 4.1% | -2.5% | +466.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +23.8% | +442.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 46.8% | +27.9% | +468.1% |
| Mar 2021 | Aug 2021 | 22 | 15.5% | +125.1% | +487.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | +134.5% | +124.1% |
| Average | 13 | — | +61.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is currently 61.8% above its 200-week moving average of $56.00. It would need to fall to $56.00 to cross below the line.
What is HCC's 200-week moving average price?
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $56.00 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HCC drops below its 200-week moving average?
HCC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +61.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is HCC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HCC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 6.4%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HCC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.3 years, $100 invested in HCC would have grown to $546, compared to $323 for the S&P 500. That's 22.6% annualized vs 15.1% for the index. HCC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HCC pay a dividend?
Yes. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 34.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19