HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Basic Materials - Coking Coal Investor Relations →
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) closed at $89.05 as of 2026-02-02, trading 76.2% above its 200-week moving average of $50.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 77.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 412 weeks of data, HCC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HCC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +43.6%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, HCC is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 1.7%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Over the past 8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HCC would have grown to $535, compared to $297 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.3% vs 14.6% for the index — confirming HCC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: HCC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HCC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying HCC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.0% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.0% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HCC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HCC has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +43.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2019 | 1 | 4.1% | -2.5% | +456.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +23.8% | +432.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 46.8% | +27.9% | +457.4% |
| Mar 2021 | Aug 2021 | 22 | 15.5% | +125.1% | +476.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | +119.9% |
| Average | 13 | — | +43.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02