HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc. Healthcare - Medical Care Facilities Investor Relations →
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) closed at $427.71 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.8% above its 200-week moving average of $342.70. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 24.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 762 weeks of data, HCA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HCA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +108.3%.
With a market cap of $92.6 billion, HCA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. The stock trades at -14.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 14.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HCA would have grown to $2065, compared to $717 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.9% vs 14.4% for the index — confirming HCA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HCA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HCA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying HCA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +104.8% after 12 months (median +101.0%), compared to +35.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +134.4% vs +47.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HCA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HCA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HCA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $308.55 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $338.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $375.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $420.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $478.95 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.50 | $7.59 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-24 | $7.13 | $7.15 | +0.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $7.48 | $8.01 | +7.1% |
| 2025-10-24 | $5.73 | $6.96 | +21.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HCA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HCA has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +108.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +89.9% | +2062.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 2.2% | +83.5% | +2071.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 24.3% | +141.4% | +473.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 5.7% | +115.2% | +355.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 12.4% | +111.5% | +347.5% |
| Average | 3 | — | +108.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCA below its 200-week moving average?
No. HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is currently 24.8% above its 200-week moving average of $342.70. It would need to fall to $342.70 to cross below the line.
What is HCA's 200-week moving average price?
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $342.70 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HCA drops below its 200-week moving average?
HCA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +108.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.
Is HCA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HCA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Price-to-book is -14.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HCA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.7 years, $100 invested in HCA would have grown to $2065, compared to $717 for the S&P 500. That's 22.9% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. HCA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HCA pay a dividend?
Yes. HCA Healthcare, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 73.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18