HBNC
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) closed at $19.48 as of 2026-09-18, trading 40.8% above its 200-week moving average of $13.84. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1240 weeks of data, HBNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1000 million, HBNC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -19.0%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 16.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HBNC would have grown to $1100, compared to $1328 for the S&P 500. HBNC has returned 10.6% annualized vs 11.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HBNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HBNC Crosses Below the Line?
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HBNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HBNC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HBNC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.76 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $19.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $21.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.97 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.51 | $0.49 | -3.9% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.48 | $0.51 | +6.2% |
| 2026-01-21 | $0.50 | $0.52 | +4.7% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.48 | $1.63 | +243.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HBNC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HBNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2010 | 128 | 51.8% | -24.7% | +597.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 44 | 51.5% | +24.2% | +70.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | -36.3% | +49.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 7.0% | -14.6% | +52.7% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 4.7% | -1.1% | +55.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Dec 2023 | 43 | 47.3% | -16.3% | +49.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 27 | 17.6% | +19.1% | +63.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 7.1% | +31.1% | +53.6% |
| Average | 31 | — | +-2.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBNC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) is currently 40.8% above its 200-week moving average of $13.84. It would need to fall to $13.84 to cross below the line.
What is HBNC's 200-week moving average price?
Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.84 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HBNC drops below its 200-week moving average?
HBNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is HBNC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HBNC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Return on equity is -19.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HBNC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.8 years, $100 invested in HBNC would have grown to $1100, compared to $1328 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 11.5% for the index. HBNC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HBNC pay a dividend?
Yes. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 328.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18