HBNC
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) closed at $19.34 as of 2026-06-19, trading 42.1% above its 200-week moving average of $13.61. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 45.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, HBNC is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1227 weeks of data, HBNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $993 million, HBNC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -20.1%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 16.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HBNC would have grown to $1084, compared to $1306 for the S&P 500. HBNC has returned 10.6% annualized vs 11.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HBNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HBNC Crosses Below the Line?
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HBNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HBNC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HBNC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $16.10 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $16.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $17.61 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $18.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.42 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HBNC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HBNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2010 | 128 | 51.8% | -24.7% | +587.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 44 | 51.5% | +24.2% | +67.9% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | -36.3% | +47.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 6.9% | -14.6% | +50.4% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 4.6% | -1.1% | +53.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Dec 2023 | 43 | 47.3% | -16.3% | +47.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 27 | 17.5% | +19.1% | +61.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 7.1% | +31.4% | +53.1% |
| Average | 31 | — | +-2.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBNC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) is currently 42.1% above its 200-week moving average of $13.61. It would need to fall to $13.61 to cross below the line.
What is HBNC's 200-week moving average price?
Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.61 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HBNC drops below its 200-week moving average?
HBNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is HBNC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HBNC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Return on equity is -20.1%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HBNC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.6 years, $100 invested in HBNC would have grown to $1084, compared to $1306 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 11.5% for the index. HBNC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HBNC pay a dividend?
Yes. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 329.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19