HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc. Basic Materials - Copper Investor Relations →
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) closed at $26.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 143.2% above its 200-week moving average of $11.06. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 142.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 870 weeks of data, HBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HBM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.2%.
With a market cap of $11.9 billion, HBM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 16.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 51.5% over three years, indicating dilution. HBM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 16.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HBM would have grown to $258, compared to $953 for the S&P 500. HBM has returned 5.8% annualized vs 14.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HBM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HBM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HBM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.1% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.9% vs +36.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HBM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HBM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HBM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $21.26 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.77 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.83 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $32.71 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.25 | $0.28 | +13.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | $0.34 | $0.40 | +16.6% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.39 | $0.22 | -43.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.06 | $0.03 | -50.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HBM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HBM has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +14.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2013 | 77 | 39.4% | -29.9% | +139.0% |
| Feb 2013 | Jul 2014 | 76 | 45.5% | -23.3% | +151.6% |
| Aug 2014 | Apr 2015 | 37 | 27.2% | -40.5% | +172.1% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2017 | 81 | 76.9% | -46.8% | +219.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Jul 2017 | 16 | 28.0% | +8.6% | +320.6% |
| May 2018 | Jan 2019 | 35 | 38.3% | -23.8% | +326.3% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2020 | 80 | 75.3% | -53.3% | +409.6% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.5% | -22.3% | +405.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | -10.8% | +417.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 23 | 38.8% | +9.4% | +471.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 4.6% | +8.1% | +439.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 22 | 14.4% | +1.9% | +435.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 22.1% | +64.5% | +474.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 3 | 3.6% | +58.4% | +404.7% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 6.4% | +82.1% | +425.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 1.3% | +245.2% | +329.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +14.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) is currently 143.2% above its 200-week moving average of $11.06. It would need to fall to $11.06 to cross below the line.
What is HBM's 200-week moving average price?
Hudbay Minerals Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $11.06 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HBM drops below its 200-week moving average?
HBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is HBM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HBM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 16.7%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HBM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.8 years, $100 invested in HBM would have grown to $258, compared to $953 for the S&P 500. That's 5.8% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. HBM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HBM pay a dividend?
Yes. Hudbay Minerals Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 11.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18