HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc. Basic Materials - Copper Investor Relations →
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) closed at $24.73 as of 2026-02-02, trading 214.4% above its 200-week moving average of $7.86. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 204.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, HBM is in overbought territory.
Over the past 838 weeks of data, HBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $9.8 billion, HBM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 51.0% over three years, indicating dilution. HBM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 16.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HBM would have grown to $237, compared to $857 for the S&P 500. HBM has returned 5.5% annualized vs 14.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 112.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: HBM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HBM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying HBM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -5.5% after 12 months (median -12.0%), compared to +14.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.9% vs +36.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HBM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
HBM has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2013 | 77 | 39.4% | -29.9% | +119.5% |
| Feb 2013 | Jul 2014 | 76 | 45.5% | -23.3% | +131.1% |
| Aug 2014 | Apr 2015 | 37 | 27.1% | -40.5% | +149.9% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2017 | 81 | 76.9% | -46.8% | +193.7% |
| Mar 2017 | Jul 2017 | 16 | 28.0% | +8.6% | +286.3% |
| May 2018 | Jan 2019 | 35 | 38.3% | -23.8% | +291.6% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2020 | 80 | 75.3% | -53.3% | +368.1% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.5% | -22.3% | +364.2% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | -10.8% | +375.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 23 | 38.8% | +9.4% | +424.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 4.6% | +8.1% | +395.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 22 | 14.4% | +1.9% | +391.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 22.1% | +64.5% | +427.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 3 | 3.6% | +58.4% | +363.6% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 6.4% | +82.1% | +382.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | +294.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +-1.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02