HBCP
Home Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP) closed at $68.57 as of 2026-09-18, trading 52.0% above its 200-week moving average of $45.10. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.24 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 888 weeks of data, HBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $540 million, HBCP is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HBCP would have grown to $725, compared to $974 for the S&P 500. HBCP has returned 12.3% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HBCP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HBCP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying HBCP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.5% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +16.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.0% vs +43.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HBCP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HBCP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HBCP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $66.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $69.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $75.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $78.88 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $1.46 | $1.48 | +1.7% |
| 2026-04-20 | $1.39 | $1.45 | +4.5% |
| 2026-01-26 | $1.39 | $1.46 | +4.8% |
| 2025-10-20 | $1.36 | $1.59 | +16.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HBCP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HBCP has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 1.8% | -29.4% | +149.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 2.0% | -18.1% | +129.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 44.3% | -2.1% | +136.7% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | -3.4% | +126.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 17 | 10.5% | +13.4% | +133.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 9 | 4.0% | +30.0% | +121.2% |
| Average | 14 | — | +-1.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBCP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP) is currently 52.0% above its 200-week moving average of $45.10. It would need to fall to $45.10 to cross below the line.
What is HBCP's 200-week moving average price?
Home Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $45.10 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HBCP drops below its 200-week moving average?
HBCP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is HBCP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HBCP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HBCP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.1 years, $100 invested in HBCP would have grown to $725, compared to $974 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. HBCP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HBCP pay a dividend?
Yes. Home Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 182.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18