HAFN
Hafnia Energy Investor Relations →
Hafnia (HAFN) closed at $9.38 as of 2026-09-11, trading 78.2% above its 200-week moving average of $5.26. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 66.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, HAFN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 78 weeks of data, HAFN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HAFN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +68.3%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, HAFN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 26.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
HAFN passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 1.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HAFN would have grown to $321, compared to $139 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 109.0% vs 22.9% for the index — confirming HAFN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HAFN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HAFN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying HAFN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +100.5% after 12 months (median +147.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HAFN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HAFN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HAFN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-18.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.96 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $6.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.78 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $8.66 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | $0.51 | $0.47 | -7.3% |
| 2026-05-27 | $0.25 | $0.29 | +17.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +7.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.16 | $0.18 | +11.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HAFN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HAFN has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +68.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 35.8% | +80.7% | +165.9% |
| Jun 2025 | Jul 2025 | 4 | 5.2% | +56.0% | +122.0% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +107.1% |
| Average | 6 | — | +68.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HAFN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hafnia (HAFN) is currently 78.2% above its 200-week moving average of $5.26. It would need to fall to $5.26 to cross below the line.
What is HAFN's 200-week moving average price?
Hafnia's 200-week moving average is $5.26 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HAFN drops below its 200-week moving average?
HAFN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +68.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is HAFN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HAFN as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.8%. Return on equity is 26.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HAFN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 1.6 years, $100 invested in HAFN would have grown to $321, compared to $139 for the S&P 500. That's 109.0% annualized vs 22.9% for the index. HAFN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HAFN pay a dividend?
Yes. Hafnia currently pays a dividend yield of 1187.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11