H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Hotels Investor Relations →
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) closed at $174.06 as of 2026-07-31, trading 27.7% above its 200-week moving average of $136.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 37.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 825 weeks of data, H has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought H at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.8%.
With a market cap of $16.4 billion, H is a large-cap stock. The stock trades at 4.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 15.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in H would have grown to $447, compared to $833 for the S&P 500. H has returned 9.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: H vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After H Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying H when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.4% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +19.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +65.0% vs +37.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment H crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices H would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where H's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $113.93 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $130.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $152.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $183.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $229.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from H's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
H has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +28.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 20.3% | -9.6% | +364.3% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 10.3% | +11.0% | +392.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 13 | 10.6% | +15.1% | +368.8% |
| Dec 2015 | Jul 2016 | 31 | 24.3% | +17.7% | +275.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 2.9% | +18.1% | +257.1% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 3 | 1.5% | +54.1% | +247.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 40.3% | +56.9% | +220.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 4.2% | +36.5% | +168.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 3 | 2.5% | +30.6% | +151.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.1% | +55.7% | +137.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.2% | +31.2% | +59.4% |
| Average | 13 | — | +28.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is H below its 200-week moving average?
No. Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) is currently 27.7% above its 200-week moving average of $136.29. It would need to fall to $136.29 to cross below the line.
What is H's 200-week moving average price?
Hyatt Hotels Corporation's 200-week moving average is $136.29 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when H drops below its 200-week moving average?
H has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is H a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about H as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Price-to-book is 4.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does H compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.8 years, $100 invested in H would have grown to $447, compared to $833 for the S&P 500. That's 9.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. H has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does H pay a dividend?
Yes. Hyatt Hotels Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 34.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31