GWW
W.W. Grainger Inc. Industrials - Industrial Distribution Investor Relations →
W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW) closed at $1365.41 as of 2026-06-19, trading 53.5% above its 200-week moving average of $889.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, GWW is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, GWW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GWW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.2%.
With a market cap of $64.5 billion, GWW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 46.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 16.4x book value.
GWW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 70.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GWW would have grown to $7963, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming GWW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GWW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GWW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying GWW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.7% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.8% vs +28.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GWW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GWW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GWW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1117.71 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1165.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1218.32 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1275.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1338.83 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GWW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GWW has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +14.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Feb 1974 | 3 | 7.4% | -26.2% | +65435.7% |
| Mar 1974 | May 1974 | 10 | 12.1% | -39.0% | +61580.6% |
| Jun 1974 | Jan 1976 | 82 | 50.1% | -28.3% | +61580.6% |
| Jan 1976 | Feb 1976 | 2 | 3.2% | -3.1% | +74797.9% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 5 | 5.6% | -3.4% | +72215.2% |
| Dec 1976 | Dec 1976 | 1 | 0.1% | +4.2% | +70989.6% |
| Jan 1977 | May 1977 | 17 | 9.3% | -2.6% | +72215.2% |
| May 1977 | Jul 1977 | 7 | 2.4% | +6.9% | +72215.2% |
| Aug 1977 | Sep 1977 | 3 | 1.4% | +26.8% | +73483.9% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 4 | 5.5% | +31.3% | +78297.8% |
| Feb 1978 | Feb 1978 | 3 | 1.8% | +17.9% | +75133.7% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 18 | 20.7% | +12.0% | +67008.5% |
| Jun 1982 | Jun 1982 | 1 | 4.4% | +76.6% | +61130.4% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 2 | 0.6% | +51.6% | +58767.1% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 6 | 3.4% | +63.5% | +16681.9% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 1.3% | +30.7% | +8544.1% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 2.1% | +45.2% | +5545.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 0.7% | -21.8% | +4959.8% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 7.9% | -9.7% | +5062.6% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2001 | 55 | 40.7% | -8.6% | +4727.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2001 | 9 | 4.5% | +23.5% | +4871.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 11.7% | +16.1% | +5425.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.6% | +4675.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 1.5% | +21.5% | +4659.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 8 | 11.4% | +45.4% | +2580.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 2 | 2.2% | +40.6% | +2430.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 6 | 16.4% | +54.6% | +2529.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Mar 2016 | 30 | 16.8% | +7.6% | +635.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 1.3% | -19.6% | +613.8% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 4.0% | -18.9% | +614.2% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 3 | 4.1% | -22.5% | +629.4% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 12 | 10.7% | -24.0% | +610.2% |
| Apr 2017 | Nov 2017 | 33 | 27.0% | +29.0% | +605.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 15.3% | +90.7% | +586.8% |
| Average | 10 | — | +14.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GWW below its 200-week moving average?
No. W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW) is currently 53.5% above its 200-week moving average of $889.74. It would need to fall to $889.74 to cross below the line.
What is GWW's 200-week moving average price?
W.W. Grainger Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $889.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GWW drops below its 200-week moving average?
GWW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is GWW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GWW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 81 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 46.1%. Price-to-book is 16.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GWW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GWW would have grown to $7963, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GWW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GWW pay a dividend?
Yes. W.W. Grainger Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 70.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19