GTN
Gray Television, Inc. Communication Services - Broadcasting Investor Relations →
Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) closed at $4.04 as of 2026-07-31, trading 27.1% below its 200-week moving average of $5.54. This places GTN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -29.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, GTN is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1200 weeks of data, GTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.5%.
Return on equity stands at -3.4%. The stock trades at 0.2x book value.
Share count has increased 9.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GTN would have grown to $48, compared to $1122 for the S&P 500. GTN has returned -3.1% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying GTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +40.5% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +80.6% vs +28.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GTN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GTN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-07.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.99 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $3.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $4.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $5.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $6.64 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GTN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +37.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2003 | Sep 2003 | 1 | 1.9% | +17.2% | -39.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 4 | 4.9% | +11.6% | -46.9% |
| May 2005 | Jul 2005 | 8 | 13.7% | -32.3% | -48.3% |
| Aug 2005 | Mar 2007 | 83 | 44.9% | -37.1% | -43.9% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 5.6% | -56.8% | -42.0% |
| Jun 2007 | Jan 2012 | 242 | 97.4% | -60.2% | -44.5% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 4.8% | +211.3% | +207.8% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 12 | 22.3% | +287.4% | +197.1% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 3.7% | +52.0% | -47.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Jan 2017 | 18 | 25.4% | +45.9% | -48.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Jun 2018 | 14 | 14.9% | +75.5% | -57.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 37.5% | +29.9% | -65.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 7.1% | -57.3% | -71.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Ongoing | 202+ | 74.8% | Ongoing | -68.8% |
| Average | 45 | — | +37.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GTN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) is trading 27.1% below its 200-week moving average of $5.54. The current price is $4.04.
What is GTN's 200-week moving average price?
Gray Television, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $5.54 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GTN drops below its 200-week moving average?
GTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is GTN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GTN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Return on equity is -3.4%. Price-to-book is 0.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GTN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23 years, $100 invested in GTN would have grown to $48, compared to $1122 for the S&P 500. That's -3.1% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. GTN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GTN pay a dividend?
Yes. Gray Television, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 788.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31