GSK
GSK plc Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
GSK plc (GSK) closed at $50.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 36.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.17. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2364 weeks of data, GSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GSK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.2%.
With a market cap of $101.5 billion, GSK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 40.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.2x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GSK would have grown to $1030, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. GSK has returned 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GSK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GSK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 39 historical episodes, buying GSK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.6% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.6% vs +22.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GSK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GSK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GSK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $47.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $51.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $57.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $65.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $74.85 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GSK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GSK has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +12.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1993 | May 1993 | 8 | 10.1% | +12.0% | +1060.4% |
| May 1993 | Sep 1993 | 14 | 22.6% | -8.0% | +1068.5% |
| Sep 1993 | Oct 1993 | 2 | 1.7% | -5.3% | +992.6% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 4 | 5.1% | +4.9% | +975.5% |
| Jan 1994 | Dec 1994 | 50 | 21.4% | +9.6% | +955.2% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 3.5% | +46.2% | +911.9% |
| Feb 1995 | Feb 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +47.8% | +886.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.5% | +24.0% | +264.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 6.7% | -0.3% | +227.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 6 | 9.0% | -19.7% | +201.7% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2003 | 107 | 33.1% | -24.7% | +198.3% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +4.5% | +230.4% |
| Jan 2004 | Sep 2004 | 35 | 10.1% | +5.3% | +228.3% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 2 | 1.1% | +28.7% | +244.7% |
| Jan 2008 | Jul 2008 | 24 | 12.6% | -23.6% | +172.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.4% | -13.1% | +169.2% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2009 | 66 | 36.3% | -9.1% | +166.0% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2009 | 1 | 1.0% | -0.3% | +176.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Aug 2010 | 34 | 17.3% | -0.5% | +181.6% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 4 | 4.1% | +26.6% | +193.9% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.0% | -2.1% | +110.2% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 1.5% | +0.6% | +110.5% |
| Jun 2015 | Aug 2015 | 9 | 4.7% | +8.3% | +103.9% |
| Aug 2015 | Apr 2016 | 34 | 10.7% | +14.9% | +107.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 2.6% | +11.6% | +97.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Feb 2017 | 17 | 8.5% | +4.4% | +94.1% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 3 | 3.8% | +9.6% | +98.3% |
| Oct 2017 | Mar 2018 | 22 | 10.9% | +14.8% | +109.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 9.8% | +15.9% | +99.6% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 4 | 9.6% | +12.9% | +77.9% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +28.1% | +77.7% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 6 | 7.0% | +34.4% | +82.2% |
| Mar 2021 | Apr 2021 | 1 | 0.9% | +29.2% | +76.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Apr 2023 | 34 | 20.2% | +2.1% | +64.8% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | +18.7% | +59.8% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2023 | 16 | 6.1% | +31.4% | +61.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 4 | 3.0% | +12.7% | +63.3% |
| Nov 2024 | Feb 2025 | 12 | 7.4% | +47.9% | +63.0% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.8% | +74.8% | +53.5% |
| Average | 14 | — | +12.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GSK below its 200-week moving average?
No. GSK plc (GSK) is currently 36.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.17. It would need to fall to $37.17 to cross below the line.
What is GSK's 200-week moving average price?
GSK plc's 200-week moving average is $37.17 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GSK drops below its 200-week moving average?
GSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is GSK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GSK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Return on equity is 40.9%. Price-to-book is 4.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GSK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GSK would have grown to $1030, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GSK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19