GRMN
Garmin Ltd. Consumer Discretionary - Electronics Investor Relations →
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) closed at $293.78 as of 2026-07-31, trading 78.9% above its 200-week moving average of $164.22. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 49.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1290 weeks of data, GRMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GRMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +44.1%.
With a market cap of $56.7 billion, GRMN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 21.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
GRMN passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 24.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GRMN would have grown to $6491, compared to $1025 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.4% vs 9.9% for the index — confirming GRMN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 35.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GRMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GRMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying GRMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.3% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +5.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +99.2% vs +24.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GRMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GRMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GRMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $216.69 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $233.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $252.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $274.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $302.06 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GRMN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GRMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +44.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 5 | 14.8% | +36.7% | +6543.7% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 6 | 4.5% | +54.8% | +5694.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2002 | 9 | 11.2% | +104.3% | +5592.2% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 6 | 8.8% | +140.2% | +5918.9% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.2% | +3759.0% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 5 | 10.1% | -48.2% | +1108.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Oct 2011 | 173 | 67.6% | -46.6% | +1106.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Apr 2016 | 37 | 21.0% | +36.7% | +858.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 2.1% | +36.1% | +864.0% |
| Jun 2022 | May 2023 | 51 | 22.2% | +8.7% | +222.4% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 2 | 2.9% | +62.6% | +205.4% |
| Jul 2023 | Oct 2023 | 10 | 3.9% | +73.8% | +196.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 5.8% | +65.5% | +198.2% |
| Average | 24 | — | +44.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRMN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is currently 78.9% above its 200-week moving average of $164.22. It would need to fall to $164.22 to cross below the line.
What is GRMN's 200-week moving average price?
Garmin Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $164.22 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GRMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
GRMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +44.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is GRMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GRMN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 21.9%. Price-to-book is 6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GRMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.8 years, $100 invested in GRMN would have grown to $6491, compared to $1025 for the S&P 500. That's 18.4% annualized vs 9.9% for the index. GRMN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GRMN pay a dividend?
Yes. Garmin Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 143.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31