GRBK
Green Brick Partners, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Residential Construction Investor Relations →
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) closed at $74.61 as of 2026-06-19, trading 35.6% above its 200-week moving average of $55.02. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 943 weeks of data, GRBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GRBK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.3%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, GRBK is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 17.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years. GRBK passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GRBK would have grown to $131, compared to $743 for the S&P 500. GRBK has returned 1.5% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GRBK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GRBK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying GRBK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.6% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.9% vs +33.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GRBK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GRBK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GRBK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $60.32 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $65.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $70.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $76.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $84.75 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GRBK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GRBK has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +32.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2008 | Dec 2009 | 80 | 92.6% | -86.3% | +30.8% |
| Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 2 | 8.2% | -43.3% | +95.1% |
| Feb 2010 | Aug 2014 | 236 | 89.5% | -66.1% | +106.3% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.2% | +120.9% | +1329.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 4.4% | +96.6% | +1389.2% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.0% | -0.9% | +711.0% |
| Nov 2018 | Jul 2019 | 35 | 25.9% | +17.3% | +746.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.4% | +49.8% | +710.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | +64.1% | +711.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 36.6% | +170.8% | +830.3% |
| Average | 37 | — | +32.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRBK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is currently 35.6% above its 200-week moving average of $55.02. It would need to fall to $55.02 to cross below the line.
What is GRBK's 200-week moving average price?
Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $55.02 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GRBK drops below its 200-week moving average?
GRBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is GRBK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GRBK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 17.4%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GRBK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in GRBK would have grown to $131, compared to $743 for the S&P 500. That's 1.5% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. GRBK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19