GPRE
Green Plains Inc. Basic Materials - Chemicals Investor Relations →
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) closed at $13.85 as of 2026-02-02, trading 33.3% below its 200-week moving average of $20.76. This places GPRE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -45.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, GPRE is in overbought territory.
Over the past 990 weeks of data, GPRE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GPRE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $967 million, GPRE is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -14.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 20.7% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 19.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPRE would have grown to $74, compared to $697 for the S&P 500. GPRE has returned -1.5% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: GPRE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPRE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying GPRE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.9% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +23.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 36% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.7% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPRE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GPRE has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2007 | Dec 2009 | 149 | 92.0% | -59.8% | -27.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 15.8% | -9.7% | +22.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 8.8% | -10.0% | +27.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 13 | 27.5% | -13.6% | +32.6% |
| Apr 2012 | Feb 2013 | 43 | 53.2% | +49.1% | +90.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jun 2016 | 25 | 31.1% | +46.6% | -18.1% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 2 | 3.0% | -14.0% | -32.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 0.9% | -24.7% | -35.5% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 3 | 2.4% | -19.8% | -34.9% |
| May 2017 | Sep 2020 | 176 | 76.3% | -4.4% | -34.2% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 4 | 7.2% | +151.3% | -8.3% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 4 | 16.8% | +179.5% | -0.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | -48.4% | -46.5% |
| Nov 2023 | Ongoing | 118+ | 87.0% | Ongoing | -46.8% |
| Average | 39 | — | +17.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02