GPMT
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) closed at $1.44 as of 2026-07-31, trading 50.6% below its 200-week moving average of $2.92. This places GPMT in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -54.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 426 weeks of data, GPMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 153 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -26.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $69 million, GPMT is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -6.4%. The stock trades at 0.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPMT would have grown to $17, compared to $311 for the S&P 500. GPMT has returned -19.4% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -64.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GPMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying GPMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -33.5% after 12 months (median -27.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -30.5% vs +27.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GPMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GPMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1.52 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GPMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GPMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2021 | 60 | 83.5% | -26.9% | -83.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 246+ | 68.4% | Ongoing | -80.3% |
| Average | 153 | — | +-26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPMT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) is trading 50.6% below its 200-week moving average of $2.92. The current price is $1.44.
What is GPMT's 200-week moving average price?
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $2.92 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GPMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
GPMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -26.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 153 weeks on average.
Is GPMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GPMT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is -6.4%. Price-to-book is 0.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GPMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.2 years, $100 invested in GPMT would have grown to $17, compared to $311 for the S&P 500. That's -19.4% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. GPMT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GPMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1481.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31