GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) closed at $9.31 as of 2026-09-18, trading 54.8% below its 200-week moving average of $20.62. This places GPK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -54.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1714 weeks of data, GPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GPK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.1%.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, GPK is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.0%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 32.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPK would have grown to $124, compared to $2949 for the S&P 500. GPK has returned 0.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $1,214,294. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while GPK is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GPK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying GPK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.8% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +16.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -1.9% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GPK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GPK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.56 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $10.24 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $11.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $11.92 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $12.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.12 | $0.14 | +14.8% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.06 | $0.09 | +48.1% |
| 2026-02-03 | $0.35 | $0.29 | -16.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.57 | $0.58 | +1.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GPK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GPK has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 1 | 1.4% | +18.6% | +29.3% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 4 | 6.3% | +24.1% | +28.3% |
| Aug 1994 | Oct 1994 | 9 | 8.1% | +79.1% | +27.3% |
| Oct 1995 | Apr 1996 | 27 | 20.9% | +8.3% | +29.3% |
| Jul 1996 | Dec 1996 | 21 | 9.1% | +32.7% | +20.2% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.5% | +18.5% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 3 | 3.4% | +34.2% | +14.5% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 2001 | 161 | 87.1% | -38.2% | +13.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 26 | 35.7% | +58.2% | +134.6% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 3.1% | -2.9% | +145.3% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 8.6% | +23.1% | +165.7% |
| Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | 2.6% | +75.5% | +152.6% |
| Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 7 | 17.1% | +54.1% | +197.0% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2004 | 15 | 24.7% | +32.0% | +154.3% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 8 | 3.6% | +50.0% | +163.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Jan 2007 | 98 | 60.3% | -52.0% | +133.3% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | -33.1% | +166.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 6.2% | -51.3% | +162.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 7 | 5.9% | -36.0% | +168.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2009 | 110 | 81.9% | -62.7% | +171.1% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +61.7% | +284.7% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 1.8% | +69.3% | +275.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 21.5% | +17.9% | -13.2% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.4% | +6.4% | -15.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | +17.0% | -16.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 17.6% | +39.2% | -18.1% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +52.5% | -20.9% |
| Apr 2025 | Ongoing | 73+ | 60.1% | Ongoing | -55.1% |
| Average | 22 | — | +19.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is trading 54.8% below its 200-week moving average of $20.62. The current price is $9.31.
What is GPK's 200-week moving average price?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's 200-week moving average is $20.62 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GPK drops below its 200-week moving average?
GPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is GPK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GPK as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 8.6%. Return on equity is 6.0%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GPK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.9 years, $100 invested in GPK would have grown to $124, compared to $2949 for the S&P 500. That's 0.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GPK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GPK pay a dividend?
Yes. Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently pays a dividend yield of 473.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18