GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) closed at $13.26 as of 2026-02-02, trading 41.9% below its 200-week moving average of $22.83. This places GPK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -35.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1682 weeks of data, GPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GPK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.1%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, GPK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 14.0%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Over the past 32.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPK would have grown to $170, compared to $2653 for the S&P 500. GPK has returned 1.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: GPK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying GPK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.4% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -1.9% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GPK has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 1 | 1.4% | +18.6% | +78.1% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 4 | 6.3% | +24.1% | +76.8% |
| Aug 1994 | Oct 1994 | 9 | 8.1% | +79.1% | +75.4% |
| Oct 1995 | Apr 1996 | 27 | 20.9% | +8.3% | +78.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Dec 1996 | 21 | 9.1% | +32.7% | +65.6% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.5% | +63.3% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 3 | 3.4% | +34.2% | +57.8% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 2001 | 161 | 87.1% | -38.2% | +56.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 26 | 35.7% | +58.2% | +223.3% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 3.1% | -2.9% | +238.0% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 8.6% | +23.1% | +266.0% |
| Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | 2.6% | +75.5% | +248.1% |
| Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 7 | 17.1% | +54.1% | +309.1% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2004 | 15 | 24.7% | +32.0% | +250.3% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 8 | 3.6% | +50.0% | +262.8% |
| Mar 2005 | Jan 2007 | 98 | 60.3% | -52.0% | +221.4% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | -33.1% | +267.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 6.2% | -51.3% | +261.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 7 | 5.9% | -36.0% | +269.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2009 | 110 | 81.9% | -62.7% | +273.6% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +61.7% | +430.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 1.8% | +69.3% | +416.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 21.5% | +17.9% | +19.6% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +6.4% | +16.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.1% | +17.0% | +14.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 17.6% | +39.4% | +13.5% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +52.5% | +9.0% |
| Apr 2025 | Ongoing | 41+ | 41.9% | Ongoing | -38.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +19.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02