GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) closed at $8.91 as of 2026-03-20, trading 60.1% below its 200-week moving average of $22.32. This places GPK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -57.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 13, GPK is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.9x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1688 weeks of data, GPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GPK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.1%.
With a market cap of $2.6 billion, GPK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 14.0%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 32.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPK would have grown to $116, compared to $2498 for the S&P 500. GPK has returned 0.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $700,293. Notably, these purchases occurred while GPK is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GPK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying GPK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.4% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -1.9% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GPK has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 1 | 1.4% | +18.6% | +21.0% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 4 | 6.3% | +24.1% | +20.1% |
| Aug 1994 | Oct 1994 | 9 | 8.1% | +79.1% | +19.2% |
| Oct 1995 | Apr 1996 | 27 | 20.9% | +8.3% | +21.0% |
| Jul 1996 | Dec 1996 | 21 | 9.1% | +32.7% | +12.5% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.5% | +10.9% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 3 | 3.4% | +34.2% | +7.2% |
| Jul 1998 | Aug 2001 | 161 | 87.1% | -38.2% | +6.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 26 | 35.7% | +58.2% | +119.7% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 3 | 3.1% | -2.9% | +129.7% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 8.6% | +23.1% | +148.7% |
| Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | 2.6% | +75.5% | +136.5% |
| Aug 2003 | Sep 2003 | 7 | 17.1% | +54.1% | +178.0% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2004 | 15 | 24.7% | +32.0% | +138.1% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 8 | 3.6% | +50.0% | +146.5% |
| Mar 2005 | Jan 2007 | 98 | 60.3% | -52.0% | +118.4% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | -33.1% | +149.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 6.2% | -51.3% | +145.4% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 7 | 5.9% | -36.0% | +151.0% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2009 | 110 | 81.9% | -62.7% | +153.9% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +61.7% | +260.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 1.8% | +69.3% | +251.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 21.5% | +17.9% | -18.7% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +6.4% | -20.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.1% | +17.0% | -21.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 17.6% | +39.4% | -22.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +52.5% | -25.9% |
| Apr 2025 | Ongoing | 47+ | 60.1% | Ongoing | -58.0% |
| Average | 21 | — | +19.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is trading 60.1% below its 200-week moving average of $22.32. The current price is $8.91.
What is GPK's 200-week moving average price?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company's 200-week moving average is $22.32 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GPK drops below its 200-week moving average?
GPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is GPK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GPK as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 13 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 14.0%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GPK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.4 years, $100 invested in GPK would have grown to $116, compared to $2498 for the S&P 500. That's 0.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. GPK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GPK pay a dividend?
Yes. Graphic Packaging Holding Company currently pays a dividend yield of 494.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20